Why Do So Many Billionaire Investors Seem Scared of This Bull Run?

Well-connected billionaires like Warren Buffett have been selling off US stocks at an alarming rate. Today, one of America's most trusted market experts is stepping forward to explain what's really going on behind the scenes of this bull market - and why you could soon face losses of 50% or more if you do nothing.

Wealthier Americans are driving retail spending and powering US economy

CHRISTOPHER RUGABER
October 18, 2024

WASHINGTON (AP) -- It's a trend that has surprised many: Why, despite being squeezed by high prices, have Americans kept spending at retail stores and restaurants at a robust pace?

One key reason is a relatively simple one: Wealthier consumers, boosted by strong gains in income, home equity and stock market wealth, have increasingly driven the spending.

That trend, documented by Federal Reserve research, represents something of a shift from the pre-pandemic period. And it suggests that consumer spending, the primary driver of the U.S. economy, could help sustain healthy growth this year and next.

Lower-income consumers, by contrast, have been disproportionately squeezed by higher-priced rent, groceries and other necessities, leaving them less able to spend on discretionary items, like electronics, entertainment and restaurant meals, than they were before the pandemic. Though their spending is starting to rebound as inflation-adjusted incomes rise, it could be years before their finances fully recover.

The disparities help explain the gap between gloomy consumer sentiment and widespread evidence of a healthy U.S. economy -- a major dynamic in the presidential race that is now in its final weeks. Only a portion of the American population is fueling most of the growth that is evident in government economic data.

The trends also help illustrate how the economy has managed to keep expanding at a solid pace even though the Federal Reserve, until last month, kept its key interest rate at its highest level in more than two decades. Despite the much higher borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans and credit cards that resulted from the Fed's rate hikes, inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose 3% in 2022 and 2.5% in 2023. And it increased at a 2.8% annual rate in the April-June quarter, the government said last month.

On Thursday, the Commerce Department reported that retail sales in the United States rose 0.4% from August to September, a solid gain that suggested that shoppers are confident enough in the economy to continue spending freely. Restaurant sales jumped 1%, a particularly encouraging sign because it meant that many people felt they could spend on meals outside the home. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta now estimates that the economy grew at a strong 3.4% in the July-September quarter.

Higher-income households have been fortified by huge gains in housing and stock market wealth since the pandemic. Home values have marched steadily up, fueled by high demand and an unusually low supply of houses. And the stock market has been consistently hitting new highs, with the S&P 500 index up a sizzling 22.5% for the year. Roughly 80% of stock market value is owned by the richest 10% of U.S. households.

"It speaks to the ongoing strength of those Americans, which is still carrying overall spending," said Michael Pearce, deputy chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

Housing and stock values have soared in particular for the wealthiest one-tenth of Americans over the past four years. The value of their home equity has leapt 70% from the first quarter of 2020 through the second quarter of this year, according to Fed data -- to $17.6 trillion. Their stock and mutual fund wealth has jumped 86%, to just under $37 trillion. Though inflation has eroded some of those gains, they are still quite substantial.

Such sharp growth in wealth has reduced the need for affluent Americans to save from their paychecks while still ramping up their spending. A report last week by Fed economists found that before the pandemic, retail spending had been rising for all income groups at roughly the same pace. But about three years ago, the trend shifted: Upper- and middle-income consumers started spending at a much faster pace than lower-earners.

By August 2024, inflation-adjusted spending on retail goods was nearly 17% higher than it was in January 2018 for upper-income households, defined as those earning more than $100,000. For middle-income households -- earning $60,000 to $100,000 -- their spending rose 13.3% during the same period, the Fed study found. And for those earning less than $60,000, spending has risen just 7.9% since 2018. It actually fell from mid-2021 through mid-2023.

"Middle- and high-income households have been fueling the strong demand for retail goods," Fed economist Sinem Hacioglu Hoke and two colleagues wrote.

Among those who have felt pressure to spend cautiously is Helaine Rapkin, a 69-year-old teacher who was shopping last week at a Kohl's in Ramsey, New Jersey, looking for discounts on athletic wear and gifts for her nephew, niece and daughter. Rapkin said she's wrestling with higher costs on a range of items and isn't feeling the benefits of a dramatically reduced inflation rate.

"I am not feeling good at all," she said. "I can't believe how expensive things have gotten...Clothes or food."

Pearce, in his own research, has found that since the pandemic, lower-income Americans have had to cut their spending on discretionary items. Inflation sharply increased the portion of their income that they had to spend on housing and food, leaving little for other purchases.

As a result, for the lowest-income one-fifth of Americans -- those earning less than $28,000 -- the share of their spending on discretionary items fell 2.5 percentage points by the second quarter of this year compared with 2019. It also declined for the second-lowest one-fifth of households and for the middle fifth. But for the wealthiest one-fifth, the share of their spending on discretionary purchases actually increased.

"This has clearly been a very large shock to households, particularly those at the lower end," Pearce said. "What surprised me is how little has been clawed back."

One sign of the struggles that lower-income consumers have faced is that the proportion of borrowers who are behind on credit cards or auto loans has risen in the past two years to the highest levels in about a decade.

Karen Dynan, an economist at Harvard and a nonresident fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, suggested, though, that such trends aren't likely to derail the overall economy.

"There are increasing cracks in consumers' spending," she said. "But it's not yet a broader economic story."

Dynan and Pearce say they're optimistic that consumers overall -- including lower-income ones -- will keep spending in the coming months as inflation-adjusted incomes keep rising, restoring more of Americans' purchasing power.

"We're probably past the worst, the most intense pressures on spending from both the inflation shock and from rising interest rates," Pearce said. "Now, I think the outlook is pretty strong."

___

AP Retail Writer Anne D'Innocenzio contributed to this report from New York.

Continue Reading...

Popular

Warren Buffett Says Parents Should Do This One Thing Before They Die, Whether They Are Rich Or Not

Legendary investor Warren Buffett has a piece of critical advice for parents that he believes they should follow, regardless of their wealth status.

At the crossroads of news and opinion, 'Morning Joe' hosts grapple with aftermath of Trump meeting

One of the striking things about how furiously many people reacted to the news last week that MSNBC “Morning Joe” hosts Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski was how quaint their defenders sounded.

Crypto Stocks Surge Amid Market Boom - Ad

Crypto stocks are on fire as Bitcoin hits all-time highs. One under-the-radar company is leading the charge, managing $2.1 billion in client assets and seeing record trading volumes. With crypto adoption skyrocketing, this could be a game-changing opportunity.

Mississippi Gulf Coast restaurant and its co-owner are sentenced for mislabeling seafood

GULFPORT, Miss. (AP) — A Mississippi Gulf Coast restaurant and its co-owner it were sentenced Monday on federal charges of as local premium fish.

NBA Legend Shaq's Daughter Breaks Silence On Dad's Career, Defying Family Expectations: 'It's A No Go For Me'

In a departure from her family's sports-oriented legacy, Taahirah O'Neal, the eldest daughter of basketball legend Shaquille O'Neal, has chosen to pursue a different career path and lifestyle.

Crypto Stocks Are Heating Up - Ad

At the center of this transformation is a game-changing platform that's experiencing explosive growth with $41 million in revenue in just nine months. The stock has doubled in the last 45 days, but this is only the beginning.

Palantir Board Member In A Deleted X Post Said Nasdaq Move Will 'Force Billions In ETF Buying And Deliver Tendies': Here's What This Meme-Stock Term Means

Palantir Technologies Inc has been making headlines after its board member, and partner at 8VC, Alex Moore deleted his X (formerly Twitter) account after saying in a tweet that its move to Nasdaq will "force billions in ETF buying."

What Trump's DOT Pick Could Mean For EVs, Airlines, Railroad Stocks

President-elect Donald Trump announced Sean Duffy as his pick for secretary of the Department of Transportation (DOT) on Monday. Here's a look at how the latest Trump selection could affect companies in the transportation sector:

Wall Street Warns: Stocks Could Be "Dead Money" for Next 10 Years - Ad

Well-connected billionaires like Warren Buffett have been selling off US stocks at an alarming rate. Today, one of America's most trusted market experts is stepping forward to explain what's really going on behind the scenes of this bull market - and why you could soon face losses of 50% or more if you do nothing.

Kissing the ring? MSNBC 'Morning Joe' hosts say they met with Trump to reopen lines of communication

MSNBC hosts Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski, fierce critics of President-Elect Donald Trump, say they traveled to Mar-a-Lago for a meeting with him to reopen lines of communication that would better serve their morning show viewers.

Radical Jaguar rebrand and new logo sparks ire online

NEW YORK (AP) — A for a rebrand of British luxury car brand Jaguar is being criticized online for showing models in brightly colored outfits — and no car.

Donald Trump Can't Save You From This Crisis - Ad

A huge economic crisis is about to strike America. 12 months from today, our country could be unrecognizable. That's why I've recorded this video and released it for free. Inside, I lay out exactly what's happening and several critical moves I believe every American should make right now.

What will happen to CNBC and MSNBC when they no longer have a corporate connection to NBC News?

Comcast's means that there will soon be two television networks with “NBC” in their name — CNBC and MSNBC — that will no longer have any corporate connection to NBC News.

Businesses at struggling corner where George Floyd was killed sue Minneapolis

MINNEAPOLIS (AP) — Several business owners at the struggling corner where by a Minneapolis police officer in 2020 are suing the city to demand it take over their properties and compensate them.

Forget Nvidia, Apple, Tesla, and Google - Ad

Market Wizard Larry Benedict: "Forget 99% of stocks: It's possible to make all the money you need for a happy retirement with just this one."

What to know about Scott Bessent, Trump's pick for treasury secretary

WASHINGTON (AP) — has chosen money manager Scott Bessent, an advocate for deficit reduction and deregulation, to serve as his next treasury secretary.

Mexico suggests it would impose its own tariffs to retaliate against any Trump tariffs

MEXICO CITY (AP) — President Claudia Sheinbaum suggested Tuesday that Mexico could retaliate with tariffs of its own, after U.S. President-elect Donald 25% import duties on Mexican goods if the country doesn’t stop the flow of drugs and migrants across the border.

Watch Jeff's New Demo: Elon Musk's New $9 Trillion AI Product - Ad

Why is Jeff Brown blindfolded and with his hands tied behind his back? It's all part of a crazy experiment involving a Cybertruck. See this demo because if Jeff is right... Elon Musk could make a lot of people rich with his new AI technology.

As US ramps up nuclear power, fuel supplier plans to enrich more uranium domestically

OAK RIDGE, Tenn. (AP) — A supplier of fuel for nuclear power plants announced a $60 million expansion in Tennessee on Wednesday, promising to resume and grow its manufacturing of high-tech centrifuges there to enrich uranium at its facility in Ohio.

Why Is This Bull Run Scaring JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Warren Buffett? - Ad

Billionaires Warren Buffett, Stanley Druckenmiller, and David Tepper have all sold off massive U.S. stock positions. Billionaire Ray Dalio, who runs one of the world's most successful hedge funds, says, "Things are going to get worse for our economy." What are these billionaires so worried about?

Trump's treasury pick could give an indication of what he plans to do about tariffs

WASHINGTON (AP) — President-elect Donald Trump’s decision on a treasury secretary is about far more than whose name will be printed on America’s money.

T-Mobile Hit By Chinese Hackers After Rivals AT&T, Verizon Suffer Breach: Report

A major cyber-espionage operation linked to Chinese intelligence has reportedly infiltrated T-Mobile and other telecom networks.

The Trump Surge Sectors! - Ad

According to millionaire-trader Jeff Clark, President Trump's bold agenda is poised to unleash a historic trading opportunity. Already, Trump's sweeping victory has launched the DOW, NASDAQ, and BITCOIN to record highs. And now, Jeff has identified a group of niche-sectors poised to surge as President Trump fuels America's economic renaissance.

Archegos hedge fund founder Bill Hwang gets 18 years in prison for massive fraud

NEW YORK (AP) — The founder of Archegos Capital Management, a hedge fund, was sentenced to 18 years in prison on Wednesday for securities and market manipulation fraud in a scheme that prosecutors said cost global investment banks billions of dollars.

Trump's threat to impose tariffs could raise prices for consumers, colliding with promise for relief

DETROIT (AP) — If Donald Trump makes good on his threat to slap 25% tariffs on everything imported from Mexico and Canada, the price increases that could follow will collide with his campaign promise to give American families a break from inflation.

Crypto Stocks Are Heating Up - Ad

At the center of this transformation is a game-changing platform that's experiencing explosive growth with $41 million in revenue in just nine months. The stock has doubled in the last 45 days, but this is only the beginning.

Biden's public lands director named to lead environmental group

BILLINGS, Mont. (AP) — A senior official in President Joe Biden's administration who oversaw its contentious efforts to by curbing oil drilling on federal lands while expanding was named Tuesday as the next president of a prominent environmental group.

Cannabis Could Save $29 Billion Per Year In U.S. Healthcare Costs, Says CEO

Leafwell CEO Emily Fisher reveals medical cannabis could save U.S. healthcare $29 billion annually, citing new research.

This $2 Stock Outshines Historic Gold Rally! - Ad

Gold has soared 25% in the last 6 months, but this young company has more than doubled that return. With a price target nearly double its current value, it's caught the eye of 40+ investment banks and funds. Discover the name of this standout company today and see why it's a potential gold mine for investors.

Crypto Analyst Sees Shiba Inu Surging More Than 2,000% In Coming Rally

A market analyst says Shiba Inu (CRYPTO: SHIB) could experience a massive rally, predicting gains exceeding 2,000%. What Happened: The forecast has sparked excitement among the cryptocurrency's community as SHIB continues to gain traction as a leading meme coin.

He'll be the last meatpacker in the Meatpacking District. Here's how NYC's gritty 'hood got chic

NEW YORK (AP) — When John Jobbagy’s grandfather immigrated from Budapest in 1900, he joined a throng of European butchers chopping up and shipping off meat in a loud, smelly corner of Manhattan that New Yorkers called the Meatpacking District.

Could Elon Launch a $100 Billion "Super IPO" This Year? - Ad

Elon Musk has become Trump's most trusted advisors. According to one legendary investor...We are leading up to the world's first "Super-IPO" -- a company creating over $100 billion on the first day it goes public! Knowing about this "backdoor" play could be the best way to profit before the IPO... Starting with as little as $50.

Tariff hikes will backfire, and China can manage such 'external shocks,' a senior official says

HONG KONG (AP) — Higher tariffs on Chinese exports will backfire, just increasing prices paid by consumers, while China can manage to weather the impact of such “external shocks,” a senior Commerce Ministry official said Friday in Beijing.

Mexico acknowledges Canada's concerns about a Chinese auto plant, but says none exists

MEXICO CITY (AP) — Mexico’s president acknowledged Thursday that Canada is concerned about reports of a Chinese company’s plan to build an auto plant in Mexico, but she said it does not currently exist.

Has the Tech Stock Selloff Finally Arrived? - Ad

After soaring over 150% in 2024 alone... is it actually time to buy Nvidia? A 50-year Wall Street veteran gives his answer to Nvidia, right here...Including the name and ticker of one under-the-radar AI stock to buy instead of Nvidia... before Tuesday, December 3rd.

Trump fills out his economic team with two veterans of his first administration

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. (AP) — President-elect is turning to two officials with experience navigating not only Washington but the key issues of income taxes and tariffs as he fills out his economic team.

What Does Trump's Presidency Mean for Elon Musk's AI Venture? - Ad

As new allies, Trump and Musk could reshape America's AI future. Elon Musk's AI startup, xAI, might gain the edge it needs to dominate the industry. A shift in government support, fewer barriers, and a potential "backdoor" into the AI race are just the beginning. Is xAI set to become Elon's most powerful venture yet?

Trending Now

Information, charts or examples are for illustration and educational purposes only and not for individualized investment management This message contains commercial elements, such as advertising. We only send these offers to those who have opted in to our newsletter. Past performance is not indicative of future results. For these reasons we strongly suggest trading in a DEMO/Simulated account. The information provided by us is for educational and informational purposes only. We make no representations or warranties concerning the products, practices or procedures of any company or entity mentioned or recommended and have not determined if the statements and opinions of the advertiser are accurate, correct or truthful. If you use, act upon or make decisions in reliance on information contained or any external source linked within it, you do so at your own peril and agree to hold us, our officers, directors, shareholders, affiliates and agents without fault.

Copyright trendadvisor.net
Privacy Policy | Terms of Service