BP Warns of Lower Oil, Gas Output in Q4 Update

Lekha Gupta

January 14, 2025

BP p.l.c. (NYSE:BP) shares fell premarket on Tuesday after the company updated fourth-quarter guidance.

The company expects upstream production to decline compared to the previous quarter, with decreases in both oil production and gas & low-carbon energy.

In the gas & low carbon energy segment, realizations are expected to benefit by $0.1 to $0.2 billion, driven by changes in non-Henry Hub natural gas prices.

Also, in the oil production & operations segment, the company anticipates realizations to have an unfavorable impact of $0.2 billion to $0.4 billion due to price lags, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico and UAE.

Apart from this, BP projects lower exploration write-offs to be $0.1 billion to $0.2 billion lower quarter-over-quarter.

The company anticipates gas marketing and trading results to be average.

In the customers & products segment, BP expects results to be lower due to seasonally reduced volumes, weaker fuel margins, FX losses, and a one-off inventory adjustment from the bio-ethanol acquisition.

Also, Refining margins are projected to decline by $0.1 billion to $0.3 billion, with increased turnaround impacts, while oil trading performance is anticipated to be weak.

BP now anticipates a decrease in net debt at the end of the quarter. Brent averaged $74.73/bbl in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to $80.34/bbl in the third quarter of 2024.

Meanwhile, BP's refining marker margin (RMM) averaged $13.1 per barrel, compared to $16.5 per barrel in the third quarter.

Last week, BP was selected by India's ONGC as a Technical Services Provider (TSP) to enhance production from Mumbai High Field.

Investors can gain exposure to the stock via Texas Capital Funds Trust Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (NYSE:OILT) and Amplify ETF Trust Amplify Natural Resources Dividend Income ETF (NYSE:NDIV).

Price Action: BP shares are down 1.83% at $30.65 premarket at the last check Tuesday.

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