On Sunday, Exact Sciences Corp (NASDAQ:EXAS) reported preliminary fiscal year 2024 sales of $2.76 billion, up 10% year-over-year, compared to consensus of $2.74 billion.
For 2024, the company expects screening revenue of $2.104 billion, up 13%, and Precision Oncology revenue of $655 million, up 4%.
The cancer detection company expects fourth-quarter revenue of $713 million, an increase of 10% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to the consensus of $694.80 million.
The preliminary sales include screening revenue of $553 million and Precision Oncology revenue of $161 million.
The company plans to launch three new cancer tests in 2025:
- Cologuard Plus, next-generation colorectal cancer screening test.
- Oncodetect, a molecular residual disease test.
- Cancerguard, multi-cancer screening test.
Goldman Sachs analyst Matthew Sykes highlights colorectal cancer (CRC) screening and multi-cancer early detection (MCED) as key risk areas in a competitive market.
The analyst writes that Exact Sciences stands out due to its established business and the higher accuracy of its stool-based DNA test compared to blood-based alternatives. However, the company's MCED test is still years away from being market-ready.
Sykes believes success in CRC screening could provide Exact Sciences with a major research and development edge, enabling a faster MCED launch thanks to its experienced team and existing infrastructure. On the other hand, failing to launch an MCED test within 3-4 years could undermine the firm's investment outlook.
William Blair analyst Andrew Brackmann suggests that even a slight revenue beat, like this one, is unlikely to shift sentiment in the short term. Key updates on Cologuard's 2025 reacceleration and progress toward profitability likely won't surface until after the first quarter.
Brackmann anticipates this will remain the case but looks forward to insights on 2025 expectations and new product launches, including the company's MCED test, set to debut this year.
The long-term outlook remains strong, with shares trading at an attractive 4.1 times 2025 revenue. William Blair maintains its Outperform rating.
Price Action: EXAS stock is down 1.61% at $55.59 at the last check on Monday.
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