Is Elon's Empire Crumbling?

Jeff Brown - the legend who called Tesla and Nvidia early - says Elon is about to launch a $25T AI revolution. This isn't another chatbot. It's real-world AI that could 14X the impact of ChatGPT. But after July 23rd, it may be too late.

In an Unpredictable Market Here Are Some Potential Winners and Losers for the First Quarter

Kevin Green
January 08, 2025

Every year, analysts discuss the stocks and sectors they favor for the coming year, often providing price targets for where major indexes might land by year-end. I believe both of these practices are futile. The market is dynamic and ever-changing; the environment can shift on a dime, so don’t get attached to a one-year playbook. Focusing on quarterly trends is a better approach.

I have a few items I’m monitoring for Q1, listed in no particular order. These are not recommendations, just observations.

Economic Landscape

As of the end of December, the FOMC updated its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), making key adjustments:

  • Core PCE projections for 2025 were revised upward from 2.2% to 2.5%.
  • Real GDP growth was adjusted from 2.0% to 2.1%.
  • The number of anticipated rate cuts for 2025 was reduced by one 25-basis-point cut, down from four cuts projected in September to 2 cuts for the year.

The 10-year Treasury yield has moved higher since the first rate cut, alongside the U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY)—and rightly so. Economic data remains robust, with Real GDP continuing to exceed 2.5%, the Unemployment Rate holding steady at around 4.2%, and the Labor Participation Rate stabilizing at approximately 62.5% throughout the year.

Labor Market

For Q1, continued stability in initial claims is expected due to the high frequency of the data. In contrast, monthly BLS data—and even more delayed revisions—will likely have less market influence. Instead, the market will focus on high-frequency data and dismiss monthly payroll data, especially prior-month revisions, given the optimistic business landscape following Donald Trump’s election.

The Philly Fed provides a valuable report that models preliminary non-farm employment change data (reflected in monthly Non-Farm Payrolls) and uses comprehensive datasets from the BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) to produce an Early Benchmark indicator. This indicator reflects potential overestimation or underestimation of non-farm payrolls for each state. Unfortunately, the Early Benchmark indicator shows that total Non-Farm Payrolls have been overestimated. This aligns with the aggressive downward revision reported this year of 818,000 jobs from April 2023 through March 2024. The final revision will be released in February, alongside the January Labor Report.

The market may not feel significant labor pressure until the Unemployment Rate reaches 4.5–4.6%. While this may be a tall order for Q1 based on current trends preliminary data, it becomes more plausible by Q2 of 2025 after revisions and census data updates.

 

Source: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Liquefied Natural Gas

Just like in 2024, I am optimistic about the longer-term vision on liquefied natural gas. For those who may not know, liquified natural gas is natural gas that is cooled at -260 degrees Fahrenheit, which requires special equipment to complete the process and to also transport liquified natural gas in the form of exports to other countries. The reason LNG has gained enthusiasm over the last several years is the result of diminishing natural gas flows from Russia to Europe due to the Russia/Ukraine war, and also its ability to scale to make it more efficient to transport natural gas, in which the United States has an abundance of and in some cases we flare off excess (burn off) supplies of natural gas because it does not make it economical to capture and transport through pipelines.

With the change in Presidential administrations, the expectation is for expedited permitting and favorable regulations for the energy market as a whole, but for LNG, there might be a special focus around this industry because of its geopolitical implications. It is one of the bigger economic levers the U.S. may use over the coming months and years. Right now, LNG is still relatively expensive, and that is the result of a lack of infrastructure and tanker availability as LNG requires special tankers to transport the commodity. Infrastructure plays around LNG may be in the spotlight for Q1.

 

Source: EIA

 

Source: EIA

Several companies with LNG exposure (Not a recommendation):

  • Cheniere Energy (NYSE: LNG): Cheniere Energy is the leading U.S. producer and exporter of LNG, operating major liquefaction facilities at Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi. Its robust infrastructure and long-term contracts position it as a critical player in the global LNG supply chain.
  • TotalEnergies SE (NYSE: TTE): TotalEnergies is a global energy giant with significant investments in LNG production, trading, and infrastructure, including projects like the Arctic LNG venture. Its diversified portfolio highlights its commitment to LNG as a cleaner energy alternative.
  • Golar LNG Limited (NASDAQ: GLNG): Golar LNG is a pioneer in Floating LNG (FLNG) technology and operates LNG carriers, enabling efficient liquefaction, storage, and transportation. The company's innovative solutions offer flexibility and cost savings in the LNG value chain.
  • Chevron (NYSE: CVX): Chevron has extensive LNG operations, particularly in Australia with the Gorgon and Wheatstone projects, which supply LNG to global markets. Its LNG ventures align with its strategy to meet rising global energy demands with lower carbon solutions.
  • Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM): ExxonMobil is a major player in LNG with projects in Qatar, Papua New Guinea, and Mozambique, contributing to its role as a key supplier of cleaner-burning fuel. The company’s LNG operations are integral to its global energy portfolio and sustainability efforts.
  • Baker Hughes (NYSE: BKR): Baker Hughes provides critical equipment and services for LNG projects, including turbo-machinery and gas technology for liquefaction and transportation. Its expertise supports the development and operation of LNG facilities worldwide.
  • Honeywell International Inc. (NASDAQ: HON) Honeywell provides advanced technologies and equipment essential for LNG facilities, including control systems and automation solutions. In 2024, Honeywell announced its acquisition of Air Products' LNG technology and equipment division for $1.81 billion, enhancing its LNG pretreatment portfolio.
  • KBR, Inc. (NYSE: KBR) KBR offers engineering, procurement, and construction services, with significant experience in LNG projects, including liquefaction and regasification facilities. KBR is recognized as a leading company in the LNG infrastructure market.

The infrastructure plays, the bottom-up players may see tailwinds in Q1, like Baker Hughes, KBR, and Honeywell (even though LNG exposure may only be 5% of total revenue mix).

Copper

Pressure on key industrial metals like copper and silver persists as we begin the year, driven by the lackluster performance of China's expansion story throughout 2024. However, rhetoric from China continues to intensify, and if actions align with these statements, the "China trade" could gain traction by Q2 this year.

Copper was a notable trade last year, but prices have since pulled back as China has shifted to becoming a temporary net exporter of finished copper. This transition is driven by the ongoing expansion of smelting operations, even though copper ore remains in a structural supply deficit. The market anticipates the reopening of key mining operations in the second half of the year. While this potential supply increase may already be priced in, a price ceiling could persist if China does not significantly ramp up domestic consumption.

China accounts for approximately 55% of global refined copper consumption, so any bullish narrative around copper must be supported by increased domestic demand. Copper price action and global inventory levels should be closely monitored, as they are likely to serve as early indicators of progress in the China stimulus narrative.

It is important to note that while refined copper supply is currently in surplus, copper ore remains in a structural supply deficit. The physical market will need to work through the oversupply of refined copper before structural price support can emerge.

 

Source: ING Research

I expect the China narrative to gain traction by the end of Q1, with stronger momentum building into Q2. While price advances may be short-lived, a risk/reward trade could materialize for those patient enough to await the move, with resistance near the 2024 highs around $4.70. The 200-week SMA and 100-week SMA have converged, forming a potential support area. In the event of a structural break lower, $3.70 may act as a key support level.

The MACD is currently bearish but may begin to flatten if the $4.00 level holds. A bullish crossover of the 12 EMA above the 26 EMA on the weekly chart could serve as a bullish signal for the market.

Remember, there are other China-exposed equity trades that may relate to this early economic signal. Companies typically do not preannounce a ramp-up in commodity orders—they simply act when the timing is appropriate.

 

Silver

The silver market saw impressive activity in 2024 as it was leveraged to complement the strong move in gold and to gain exposure to the A.I. trade. Silver is used in approximately 90% of all electronics in one form or another, so the increasing demand for high-powered A.I. infrastructure products, such as GPUs and server technology, could serve as a significant tailwind for the metal. However, consumer electronics demand has been lagging since the post-COVID era, creating some slack in demand for this precious and industrial metal.

Many analysts are optimistic about a refresh cycle for consumer electronics, including cellphones and laptops. If this refresh narrative materializes in the second half of the year, silver could be a major beneficiary. That said, silver is also considered an inflationary hedge. The China growth narrative will play a critical role in silver’s ability to sustain a bullish trend. However, if slack persists in Asia-Pacific markets and there is a marginal slowdown in the U.S., silver could face downward pricing pressure.

Fundamentally, the market remains in a physical deficit when considering ETF holdings. Modest silver production growth is expected in 2025, alongside industrial demand growth projected in the high single digits. A potential price decline would likely result from a global economic slowdown. Given these dynamics, coupled with pent-up optimism around China’s expansion and expectations for sticky Q1 U.S. inflation data—especially in energy commodities like natural gas—silver may still have room to run.

 

Traders should continue to rely on technical analysis, with the weekly MACD serving as a primary guide. Key bullish and bearish signals can be identified through MACD crosses: a 12 EMA crossing above the 26 EMA indicates a bullish trend, while a 12 EMA crossing below the 26 EMA signals a bearish trend.

Support for silver futures (/SI) currently lies at $24.50-$25, with resistance at $32. Any break above $32, accompanied by volume exceeding the 10-week average by 20%, should be taken seriously as a potential breakout signal. A weakening U.S. Dollar, driven by weaker domestic economic data alongside sticky inflation, may also act as a tailwind for silver in Q1. However, at present, the U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) does not appear to be weakening anytime soon.

Crude Oil

It should come as no surprise that petroleum markets experienced lackluster performance during the last quarter of 2024. Global demand has softened, with slack evident in the Asian markets, particularly in India and China, as well as a lack of industrial activity in Germany. This has prompted leading industry agencies, including OPEC and the IEA, to revise their petroleum demand outlooks for 2024 and 2025.

OPEC+ continues to delay adding production to the market due to concerns over weak pricing support. In 2025, it should be expected that any sustainable price advances in oil will be met with increased supply, limiting the potential for sustained bullish trends unless there are logistical disruptions caused by geopolitical risks.

That being said, Q1—particularly January—may present the best window of opportunity for bulls. The first three weeks of the year are likely to see a meaningful drop in refiner utilization rates due to scheduled maintenance. Additionally, harsh winter weather, such as "Arctic blasts," could disrupt production in regions like the Bakken, affecting both extraction and pipeline operations.

The China stimulus narrative could also act as a bullish catalyst for energy markets in the first quarter. Furthermore, the early months of the Trump administration may bring headlines about favorable policies aimed at incentivizing exploration and infrastructure spending. However, it is important to note that a "drill, baby, drill" approach is not inherently bullish for prices. Instead, it could constrain additional investment as energy companies prioritize profitability over production.

It is also expected that China will continue to expand its oil and natural gas import relationship with Russia, potentially reducing its demand for global supplies.

 

Given the current fundamental backdrop, WTI crude oil is likely to trade within a range of $67-$75. Any geopolitical risk involving Iran, including greater enforcement of economic sanctions, could add a $2-$4 premium to prices. For the year, any break below $63 may result in crude oil hitting the mid $50 level. The 200-week SMA continues to be a key area of resistance at $80.

Follow me on X 

This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga's reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.

Continue Reading...

Popular

Trump keeps saying the GOP mega bill will eliminate taxes on Social Security. It does not

WASHINGTON (AP) — President keeps saying that Republicans' mega legislation will eliminate taxes on federal benefits.

A Historic Gold Announcement Is About to Rock Wall Street - Ad

The greatest investor of all time is about to validate what Garrett Goggin has been saying for months: Gold is entering a once-in-a-generation mania. Front-running Buffett has never been more urgent - and four tiny miners could be your ticket to 100X gains.

Bernie Sanders Shares First Thing He Would Do As President — And It Could Be A Jab At Elon Musk

Bernie Sanders lost the 2016 and 2020 presidential races. In a recent interview, Sanders shared what he would do first if he were president.

These are the celebs who are attending Jeff Bezos’ Venice wedding

VENICE, Italy (AP) — arrived in Venice on Thursday, leading a star-studded guest list of celebrities descending on the lagoon city for the weekend wedding of Amazon founder Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sánchez.

Make This Move Before Nvidia's Critical Update (Unique Play) - Ad

Nvidia's CEO is about to say five simple words that could ignite the next explosive phase of the AI boom. It's not about tariffs or China--but it could change everything. This moment could define the biggest profit wave yet.

FDA requires updated warning about rare heart risk with COVID shots

WASHINGTON (AP) — said Wednesday it has expanded existing warnings on the two leading COVID-19 vaccines about a rare heart side effect mainly seen in young men.

Goldman Just Launched Two New Bond ETFs; Here's Why Investors Should Pay Attention

Goldman Sachs Asset Management debuts two new actively managed fixed income ETFs in response to rising demand for active strategies in a volatile rate landscape.

Buffett's Favorite Chart Just Hit 209% - Here's What That Means For Gold - Ad

Buffett's favorite market signal just hit its highest level in history-stocks are more overvalued than 1929. He's sitting on $325B in cash... and may be about to buy one overlooked gold miner. I've identified it-plus 4 others with up to 100X potential.

VC Insists Only '996' Culture Can Propel Toward Billion-Dollar Startups, But Reveals 'There Is Nuance'

Venture capitalist Harry Stebbings argues that founders who work 5 days a week won't lead a $10B company. He says 7-day weeks are necessary for AI dominance. Critics called it toxic, but others like Shark Tank's Kevin O'Leary and Google's Sergey Brin agree.

Occidental Petroleum, Exxon Mobil, Chevron Surge In Monday Pre-Market: What's Going On?

Occidental Petroleum Corp (NYSE: OXY), Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE: XOM) and Chevron Corp (NYSE: CVX) climbed 1.95%, 1.53% and 1.31% during Monday pre-market trading session after oil prices have skyrocketed to their highest point since January, sparking concerns about potential supply disruptions.

How to Hack a $1.3T Market - Ad

Forget concrete. The new foundation for real estate success is digital, and Pacaso leads the way. Their tech unlocks a $1.3T real estate market. They've already earned $110M+ in gross profits in their operating history and reserved the Nasdaq ticker PCSO.

Netflix's Squid Game Finale Takes Over Seoul With Massive Parade, Star-Studded Fan Event

Netflix celebrated the finale of Squid Game with a parade and fan event in Seoul, featuring characters and emotional reflections from cast.

Trump ramps up attacks on the Federal Reserve but Powell sticks to 'wait and see' stance

WASHINGTON (AP) — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday stuck to that the central bank will keep its key rate on hold while it waits to see how President Donald Trump's effect the economy, despite the from the White House, which wants lower borrowing costs.

Putting Your Name on This List Could Hand You $1,270 on Friday - Ad

URGENT: On Tuesday, a simple set of instructions will be sent out to an elite group of investors. The folks in this group will have the opportunity to place a 10-minute trade that could double their money by Friday. Consider this your invitation to join them. The next trade is just days away.

Japan launches a climate change monitoring satellite on mainstay H2A rocket's last flight

TOKYO (AP) — Japan on Sunday launched a satellite to monitor greenhouse gas emissions using its mainstay rocket, which made its final flight before it is replaced by a new flagship designed to be more cost competitive in the global space market.

DOGE-Fame 'Big Balls' Is Reportedly Leaving The Government Department Once Headed By Elon Musk — Dogecoin Price Rises

Another key figure at the Department of Government Efficiency, nicknamed “Big Balls”, has reportedly stepped down, following the exit of Elon Musk from the federal initiative meant to reduce wasteful spending.

The Tesla Shock Nobody Sees Coming - Ad

While headlines scream "Tesla is doomed"...Jeff Brown has uncovered a revolutionary AI breakthrough buried inside Tesla's labs. One that is helping AI escape from our computer screens and manifest itself here in the real world all while creating a 25,000% growth market explosion starting as early as July 23rd.

Consumer Financial Protection Bureau dismisses $95M overdraft case vs. Navy Federal Credit Union

NEW YORK (AP) — Navy Federal Credit Union will no longer have to refund $80 million to servicemen and women for illegally charging them overdraft fees on their accounts, after the President Donald Trump-led Consumer Financial Protection Bureau moved to dismiss the case.

Ivy League MBA Was A 'Waste Of Time,' Says Veteran Banker, Lists Two Key Traits Far More Relevant In The AI Age

Standard Chartered CEO Bill Winters says his MBA was a waste of time, and today's leaders need curiosity and empathy, not just technical skills.

Copper's Spiking - And This Junior Has the Grades to Match - Ad

Copper is climbing again - and this time, it looks tariff-proof. A $31M junior just posted nearly 1B lbs of copper equivalent. With insiders and institutions piling in, this could be the next breakout.

Iran’s president orders country to suspend cooperation with UN nuclear watchdog IAEA

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran’s president on Wednesday ordered the country to suspend its cooperation with after American and Israeli airstrikes hit its most-important nuclear facilities, likely further limiting inspectors' ability to track Tehran's program that had been enriching uranium to near weapons-grade levels.

Trump's Crypto Ventures, Draper And Cathie Wood's Bitcoin Predictions, MSTR Estimates, And More: This Week In Crypto

The past week in the world of cryptocurrency was nothing short of eventful. From legislative moves aimed at curbing alleged corruption in cryptocurrency ventures to bold predictions about Bitcoin’s dominance, the week was filled with intriguing developments. Here’s a quick recap of the top stories that made headlines.

Elon's New Device Could Launch Biggest IPO of the Decade - Ad

Elon Musk's new device is being called a "game-changer"-and even the White House is using this tech. Jeff Brown says it could launch Musk's next trillion-dollar company and make early investors rich. You can claim a stake now for as little as $500.

Have You Seen this Strange Elon Musk Device? - Ad

Tech legend Jeff Brown predicts this "space technology" will be Elon Musk's next trillion-dollar business, and it will make a lot of people rich. This could be the biggest internet innovation since the first web browser Netscape kicked off the internet boom in the late 1990s.

Julian McMahon, Actor Who Played Doctor Doom In Fantastic Four Dies At 56

Julian McMahon, known for his roles in Fantastic Four and series like Charmed and Nip/Tuck, has passed away at 56 after battling cancer.

FDA vaccine official restricted COVID vaccine approvals against the advice of agency staff

WASHINGTON (AP) — The working under Health Secretary recently of two COVID-19 vaccines, disregarding recommendations from government scientists, according to federal documents released Wednesday.

Is Elon's Empire Crumbling? - Ad

Jeff Brown - the legend who called Tesla and Nvidia early - says Elon is about to launch a $25T AI revolution. This isn't another chatbot. It's real-world AI that could 14X the impact of ChatGPT. But after July 23rd, it may be too late.

Over 400 Space Companies Plead Congress To Maintain Office Of Space Commerce Funding: Report

Space industry companies have made a plea to Congress, seeking to safeguard the funding for the Office of Space Commerce (OSC).

Bye Bye Birdie: Twitter Blue Bird Logo Blown Up To Promote Online Marketplace Company

Elon Musk bought Twitter for $44 billion and rebranded it to X, auctioning off old memorabilia like the iconic blue bird logo. Ditchit, the buyer of the logo, recently blew it up in a promotional stunt.

A Historic Gold Announcement Is About to Rock Wall Street - Ad

The greatest investor of all time is about to validate what Garrett Goggin has been saying for months: Gold is entering a once-in-a-generation mania. Front-running Buffett has never been more urgent - and four tiny miners could be your ticket to 100X gains.

Polymarket Bettors See 50% Chance Of Fed September Rate Cuts As Trump Turns Up Heat On Powell

Cryptocurrency bettors now estimate a 50% possibility that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time in 2025 during its September meeting.

Make This Move Before Nvidia's Critical Update (Unique Play) - Ad

Nvidia's CEO is about to say five simple words that could ignite the next explosive phase of the AI boom. It's not about tariffs or China--but it could change everything. This moment could define the biggest profit wave yet.

Apple Sues Ex-Engineer Over Alleged Theft Of Vision Pro Secrets As Snap Prepares AR Glasses Launch

Apple files lawsuit accusing former senior design engineer of stealing confidential information before leaving to work at Snap.

Warren Buffett Skips Big Banks Like JPMorgan and Wells Fargo, Bets $459 Million On This One Asset

Warren Buffett has shifted his investment strategy, investing $459 million in Sirius XM after selling his stakes in Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo.

Buffett's Favorite Chart Just Hit 209% - Here's What That Means For Gold - Ad

Buffett's favorite market signal just hit its highest level in history-stocks are more overvalued than 1929. He's sitting on $325B in cash... and may be about to buy one overlooked gold miner. I've identified it-plus 4 others with up to 100X potential.

Nike soars on a production shift away from China, but it warns of a $1 billion tariff hit

Nike's shares jumped at the opening bell Friday after the company said it's shifting some production away from China. But it also warned that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration will cost it about $1 billion before it makes internal changes, which include “surgical” price increases in the U.S. starting this fall.

Trending Now

Information, charts or examples are for illustration and educational purposes only and not for individualized investment management This message contains commercial elements, such as advertising. We only send these offers to those who have opted in to our newsletter. Past performance is not indicative of future results. For these reasons we strongly suggest trading in a DEMO/Simulated account. The information provided by us is for educational and informational purposes only. We make no representations or warranties concerning the products, practices or procedures of any company or entity mentioned or recommended and have not determined if the statements and opinions of the advertiser are accurate, correct or truthful. If you use, act upon or make decisions in reliance on information contained or any external source linked within it, you do so at your own peril and agree to hold us, our officers, directors, shareholders, affiliates and agents without fault.

Copyright trendadvisor.net
Privacy Policy | Terms of Service