Cryptocurrency bettors now estimate a 50% possibility that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time in 2025 during its September meeting.
What happened: As of this writing, the odds of a 25 basis point cut were at 50% on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket. On the other hand, the odds that rates will remain unchanged from the current 4.25%-4.50% range were 44%.
The probability of rates going unchanged during the July meeting was 96%.
These bets were roughly consistent with the CME FedWatch tracker, which showed a 95% chance of rates remaining steady in July. For September, traders priced in a 62% chance of a 0.25% rate cut.
Goldman Sachs economists also anticipate a rate cut in September, three months earlier than they had previously forecast, due to the lower-than-expected impact of tariffs.
See Also: Peter Schiff Says Trump’s Tax Cuts ‘Won’t Grow The Economy.’ Instead, He Warns They’ll Lead To Higher Interest Rates And Inflation
Polymarket, based on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL), allows users to buy “Yes” and “No” shares in USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) stablecoin. The shares representing the correct outcome are paid out $1 USDC each upon market resolution.
The platform is not accessible in the U.S. due to regulatory restrictions.
Why It Matters: The jump in odds comes in the wake of President Donald Trump's escalating criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Trump reiterated his call for Powell to “resign immediately” and asked for a congressional investigation into allegations that the Fed Chair gave false information during a Senate Banking Committee testimony.
On monetary policy, Trump has accused Powell of keeping interest rates “artificially high” and argued that the benchmark should be reduced to “1% or 2%,” or half of what it is now.
Earlier this month, Powell said that Trump's tariff strategy had deterred the Federal Reserve from implementing a more dovish monetary policy.
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- Trump’s Tariff Letters Spark ‘High Level Of Uncertainity And Volatility,’ Says Economist Mohamed El-Erian
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