Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is trading near $115,000 as traders eye September 21, a date that could prove pivotal in shaping the crypto king's trajectory through the rest of 2025.
What Happened: Network economist and author Timothy Peterson identified September 21 as "Bitcoin Bottom Day." Historically, Bitcoin finishes the year higher about 70% of the time after this date, with a median gain above 50%.
Exceptions only occurred in 2018 and 2022, both deep bear markets that do not apply to the current cycle. Accounting for current conditions, Peterson estimates the odds of upside closer to 90%, and almost a 100% probability of BTC trading higher six months out.
Peterson added that this cycle likely set a permanent $100,000 floor, with at least a 70% chance Bitcoin never revisits lower levels.
Also Read: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Dogecoin Dip As Traders Lock In Profit
What's Next: In a recent CNBC Squawk Box interview, Winklevoss twins see Bitcoin's rally will not stop anytime soon. They expect the crypto king to reach $1 million over the next decade. He quoted, "It's still very much the bottom of the first inning because we see Bitcoin trading at $1 million a BTC, if it disrupts gold. And we think Bitcoin is Gold 2.0."
The Gemini co-founders made their appearance ahead of the company's initial public offering, which was priced at $28 per share last week valuing the crypto exchange at $3.3 billion.
A crypto trader Jackis said that if you follow the Bitcoin 4-year cycle, your sell window closes by mid-October 2025. The model assumes 2026 is a bear year, but that ignores supply/demand and macro factors. History shows cycles work until they don't. He advises best approach is to ride the trend while it lasts.
If Peterson's thesis holds, September 21 could mark a defining inflection point for Bitcoin, locking in $100,000 as a permanent floor and fuelling the next leg higher.
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