Tesla's Stock Surge Driven By Anticipated Q3 Delivery Outperformance, Says Gary Black: 'Let's Not Kid Ourselves'

Rounak Jain

September 14, 2025

Amid a backdrop of fluctuating sales figures, Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) is witnessing a notable rise in its stock value, fueled by expectations of surpassing third-quarter delivery targets, according to Gary Black, Managing Partner at The Future Fund LLC.

Check out the current price of TSLA stock here.

What's Driving The Tesla Stock Surge

According to Black, Tesla’s recent stock surge is not due to advancements in robotaxi technology but rather the anticipation of exceeding Wall Street’s delivery forecast.

"Let's not kid ourselves: $TSLA has been strong the past few days NOT because of progress on robotaxi but because every hedge fund has come to the realization that $TSLA will crush 3Q delivery estimates in two weeks (my 3Q deliv est 470K vs WS est 432K) as a result of buyers trying to get in front of the expiring $7,500 EV credit on 9/30 as volume is pulled forward from 4Q," Black said in a post on X.

Let's not kid ourselves: $TSLA has been strong the past few days NOT because of progress on robotaxi but because every hedge fund has come to the realization that $TSLA will crush 3Q delivery estimates in two weeks (my 3Q deliv est 470K vs WS est 432K) as a result of buyersâ€¦ pic.twitter.com/ypFLa6BL4L
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) September 13, 2025

Tesla Stock This Year

Despite this positive momentum, Tesla’s stock is still down 2% year-to-date, contrasting with the S&P 500’s 12% and Nasdaq 100’s 15% gains.

Black also points out ongoing investment debates about Tesla’s future, including the potential impact of a new, more affordable model expected in the fourth quarter and the removal of safety monitors from robotaxis in Austin and San Francisco by year-end.

These developments could significantly influence Tesla’s earnings estimates and stock trajectory, despite an anticipated reversal in delivery volumes in the fourth quarter, according to Black.

Tesla Under Scrutiny

Tesla’s performance in China has been under scrutiny, with sales falling 10% in August, marking the sixth decline in 2025. Despite this, Tesla recorded its best week of the quarter in early September, with 14.3k new registrations in China, a 41.3% increase from the previous quarter.

Losing Ground In US

However, Tesla is losing ground in the U.S. market as new vehicle prices rise and EV sales hit new records. These mixed signals highlight the challenges Tesla faces in maintaining its market position amid global sales fluctuations and evolving market dynamics.

Check out more of Benzinga’s Future Of Mobility coverage by following this link.

Read Next:

As Elon Musk’s Pay Package Surges To $1 Trillion, Investor Urges Tesla To Adopt Political Neutrality: ‘Elon Musk Is A Technical Genius’

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Photo: Jonathan Weiss / Shutterstock

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