In a striking prediction, a French trader named Theo, who claims to be the largest political bettor globally, has put $40 million on a Trump victory in the U.S. presidential election.
What Happened: Known as the "French Trump Whale," Theo argues that the “true data” reveals Donald Trump's substantial edge, contrary to many mainstream polls.
“I’m not supporting Trump,” he clarified. “I’m just observing that Trump has a 90% chance of winning this election and a 65% chance of winning the popular vote.”
Theo argues that mainstream polling is biased toward Vice President Kamala Harris, underestimating what he describes as the “shy Trump vote effect” and skewed sampling.
He pointed out that media outlets, in his view, are repeating their mistakes from 2016 and 2020, noting that these polls don't capture Trump's real advantage.
"The polls are really, really different from the odds in the predictive markets," he said. "One is calculating the intentions of people to vote. The other [predictive markets] are bets made by real people with real money about who they believe the winner will be."
During the interview, Theo cited supposed polling inaccuracies in key states like North Carolina, claiming that the methodology used by outlets such as The New York Times and Siena shows sampling bias.
In North Carolina, for example, he noted that polls suggest a slight lead for Harris.
Also Read: Donald Trump Enters Election Day As 60:40 Favorite On Prediction Markets
However, Theo claimed his own analysis of the survey data reveals an imbalance, with the sample leaning significantly toward Biden voters.
He shared that this misrepresentation results in "a huge skew to the advantage of Harris," and stated, "They are off by 9.3% … it's non-representative."
Theo claims this discrepancy extends to other battleground states, including Wisconsin and Michigan, and encourages people to analyze cross tabs themselves for what he believes is a clearer picture.
"I tell you, Trump will outperform the polls, especially these polls, by 4 to 5%," he said, further fueling his confidence in Trump's chances.
What’s Next: Benzinga's Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19 will dive into insights surrounding digital prediction markets and could offer valuable perspectives on how predictive data shapes financial and political landscapes.
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