More Than $100M Wagered On Presidential Race On Kalshi

Bibhu Pattnaik

November 02, 2024

Legal betting on the presidential race via online betting company Kalshi has topped $100 million, even as polls continue to show a neck-and-neck race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

What Happened: An advertisement for betting platform KalshiEX LLC was aired during the coverage of Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden earlier this month. The ad encouraged viewers to place bets on the election, promising a return of $175 on a $100 bet on Trump.

According to a report by NPR, the surge in legal betting comes in the wake of a federal appeals court’s decision earlier this month, which allowed the online-betting company to launch an election prediction market.

The CEO of Kalshi, Tarek Mansour, told the outlet and referred to his election market as a “mechanism for truth,” indicating a 63% chance of a Trump victory.

Also Read: Trump: Harris Presidency Would ‘Guarantee’ World War III

Despite this, critics such as Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) have voiced concerns, labeling the decision a “huge mistake” that could potentially jeopardize American democracy.

Amidst ongoing legal battles with federal regulators, retail investing platform Robinhood has also started offering bets on election contracts this week.

Why It Matters: Betting on presidential candidates was a common practice during the turn of the 20th century.

However, the advent of scientific polling and restrictive gambling laws in the latter half of the 20th century led to a decline in election betting. Recently, prediction markets have brought back election betting.

Despite the resurgence, there are lingering questions about the accuracy of these markets.

This is particularly true as the Kalshi market favors Trump by over 30 percentage points, while most political polls show Harris and Trump statistically tied.

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