Harris Vs. Trump: Vice President On Top By Three Points, How Her Lead Compares To The 2020 Election At This Point In Race

Chris Katje

September 07, 2024

Vice President Kamala Harris continues to lead over Donald Trump with two months to go until the 2024 presidential election.

What Happened: Harris continues to see leads in head-to-head polls and in the betting odds for the 2024 election in her matchup against former President Trump.

A new Morning Consult poll of likely voters shows Harris' lead dropping and Trump gaining support two months ahead of the election.

The new poll shows the following results from voters, with the results from the Aug. 27 poll in parentheses. The previous poll included all voters and not just likely voters.

Kamala Harris: 49% (48%)
Donald Trump: 46% (44%)
Someone Else: 2% (4%)
Don't Know: 3% (4%)

The poll found that 93% of Democrats backed Harris as their top pick, up one percentage point from last week's poll. The poll also found that 91% of Republicans backed Trump as their top pick, up two percentage points from last week's poll.

Independent voters selected the following as their head-to-head preference, with the results from the Aug. 27 poll in parentheses:

Kamala Harris: 47% (42%)
Donald Trump: 41% (38%)
Someone Elses: 6% (9%)
Don't Know: 6% (10%)

Along with leading all voters and Independent voters, Harris also has the edge in the 18-34 aged voters demographic leading 50% to 45%.

Did You Know?

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Why It's Important: The new 2024 election poll of likely voters might show one of the better illustrations of what could happen in November. Both candidates receive higher totals with less undecided voters factored in.

The bad news for Harris is her lead among all voters and younger voters declined from last week. Harris' lead for the independent voters grew to six percentage points, up from a four-point percentage lead previously.

Harris continues to rank ahead of Trump in the weekly head-to-head poll, maintaining a lead each week since the head-to-head update in the poll took place with Biden stepping down in the 2024 election race.

Another key figure for the 2024 election poll is how it compares to the stage in the 2020 election. With two months to go before the 2020 election, Joe Biden led Trump by eight percentage points among likely voters 51% to 43%.

Biden went on to win the popular vote in the 2020 election 51.3% to 46.9%. The nearly four-point winning margin was around half of what the poll two months before the election was predicting. Trump outperformed many election polls in both the 2016 and 2020 elections.

The three-point lead for Harris over Trump comes after Morning Consult recently released a swing state voter poll that found the vice president leading 48% to 47% overall in seven key states. The vice president was leading Trump in four of the seven swing states (Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin), tied in one (Georgia) and trailing in two (North Carolina, Pennsylvania).

This marks one of the final polls ahead of the first presidential debate between Harris and Trump set for Sept. 10.

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