Prediction market Polymarket indicates a 57% likelihood that California will pass the controversial AI safety bill SB 1047, up 7% from previous estimates.

What Happened: The bill, which has sparked intense debate in the tech industry, is now awaiting Governor Gavin Newsom‘s signature after passing through the California legislature.

SB 1047, introduced by Democratic Senator Scott Wiener, mandates safety testing for advanced AI models with development costs exceeding $100 million or requiring substantial computing power.

The bill authorizes the state attorney general to take legal action against non-compliant developers, particularly in cases of potential threats such as AI systems compromising government infrastructure.

The legislation has divided opinion among tech industry leaders.

Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, who also founded xAI, has publicly endorsed the bill, stating it’s “a tough call” but necessary.

Conversely, tech giants like Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms have expressed concerns about the bill’s potential to stifle innovation and deter AI companies from operating in California.

OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, argues that AI regulation should be addressed at the federal level to avoid an uncertain legal landscape.

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However, two former OpenAI employees have criticized the company’s stance, warning of “catastrophic harm to society” without proper safety precautions.

The Polymarket data, which shows a $16,204 bet volume as of Aug. 30, reflects the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the bill’s fate.

The market currently values “Yes” outcomes at 59 cents and “No” outcomes at 44 cents, indicating a slight lean towards the bill’s passage.

As the AI industry continues to evolve rapidly, the outcome of SB 1047 could have far-reaching implications for AI development and regulation across the United States.

What’s Next: This topic is likely to be a key point of discussion at Benzinga’s upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19, where industry experts and policymakers are expected to debate the balance between innovation and safety in the AI sector.

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