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Trump Vs. Biden: Youngest Voters Split On Who They Would Pick In 2024 Election, Why This Could Decide Who Wins

Chris Katje
April 09, 2024

President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are the frontrunners in the 2024 presidential election.

For some voters, it will be the first time they have been eligible to vote for a president as they have hit legal voting age of 18 over the past few years. In previous elections, younger voters leaned towards one political party — but that could be changing.

What Happened: A close race between Biden and Trump has been predicted by national polls of registered voters and the two candidates remained close in betting odds from sportsbooks.

The 2024 election between Biden and Trump would be a rematch of the 2020 presidential election, which Biden won to become the 46th U.S. president.

A recent Morning Consult poll of nationally registered voters aged 18 to 34 shows a close race, with the following results and the results from the previous poll in parentheses.

Donald Trump: 41% (41%)

Joe Biden: 41% (40%)

Someone Else: 11% (12%)

Don't Know: 7% (7%)

The poll shows Biden and Trump tied among the youngest voter group, which could be important as the 2024 election gets closer.

Biden previously had stronger support among young voters, with 47% of the vote from those aged 18-34 in December 2022 and holding a 44% or more vote and lead in each month from December 2022 to September 2023 before the lead among young voters tightened.

Related Link: Trump Vs. Biden: Current President Surpasses Former President In Latest 2024 Election Poll, How Independent Voters Could Flip The Script

Why It's Important: According to Statista, 55% of voters aged 18-29 voted in the 2020 election, which marked a significant increase from the 44% who turned out for the 2016 election. The peak voter turnout for the youth was 55.4% in 1972.

The 2020 election was won by Biden and Trump won the 2016 election.

Younger voters have often voted Democratic, with a Politico report saying the last Republican to win the youth vote was George H. W. Bush in 1988. Since that time, there have been eight presidential elections. Of the eight elections, five were won by Democrats.

Politico reported Trump was gaining support among young voters, which could spell trouble for Biden as this is a key demographic he likely needs to win if they show strong voter turnout again.

Coincidentally, the report said Biden had been gaining voter support from older voters. No Democrat has won the "senior vote" since Al Gore in the 2000 election.

The 2024 presidential election remains close and key demographics such as youth, seniors and voters in swing states remain keys to the path to victory in the highly anticipated rematch.

Read Next: Donald Trump Backs Away From National Abortion Ban: ‘This Is All About The Will Of The People’

Photo: Vesperstock via Shutterstock

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