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Trump In Trouble? Former President's Lead Over Biden Shrinks In New 2024 Election Poll

Chris Katje
February 16, 2024

Voters could be faced with a rematch of the top two candidates in the 2020 presidential election when deciding who will win the 2024 presidential election. Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump in the 2020 election to become the 46thpresident of the U.S.

National polls of registered voters show a close race between the two contenders. After weeks of a growing lead for one candidate, the race is back to near even.

What Happened: Biden and Trump have been the front-runners for their respective parties for the 2024 presidential election for many months.

Trump won the early states of Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada in the race to secure the GOP nomination. After rival candidates Vivek Ramaswamy and Ron DeSantis dropped out of the race, Trump faces only Nikki Haley as his competition to secure the GOP nomination for the 2024 presidential election.

The most recent Morning Consult poll of Republicans showed Trump with a 62-point lead over Haley and Trump with 80% of support among Republican voters.

Trump has had a lead of 50 points or more over his Republican opposition for several weeks. After Ramaswamy and DeSantis dropped out, Trump's lead has been 60 points or more for several weeks.

A potential matchup of Trump and Biden in the general election has been much closer than the GOP nomination race. In hypothetical matchups between Trump and Biden, the two candidates have remained close.

The weekly Morning Consult poll asked registered voters who they would select between the two candidates.

In this week's poll, Trump received 43% of the vote, while Biden received 42%. Meanwhile, 10% selected "Someone Else" and 5% selected "Don't Know."

This marked a gain of two percentage points for Biden and a decline of two percentage points for Trump. The four-point swing in Biden's favor comes after Trump had a three-point swing in the prior week to take a five-point lead.

Independent voters, who could decide the election, selected their 2024 picks as the following, with last week's results in parentheses:

Joe Biden: 32% (32%)

Donald Trump: 38% (38%)

Someone Else: 20% (18%)

Don't Know: 11% (12%)

The poll found that 88% of Republican voters selected Trump when presented with the above options, which was down one percentage point from last week's results. It also found that 82% of Democratic voters selected Biden, which is down one percentage point from last week's poll.

Related Link: Biden Too Old For Presidency? Here’s What Voters Say After Special Counsel Report, How Trump Compares

Why It's Important: After having a five-point deficit in last week's hypothetical poll, Biden has closed the gap and trails Trump by only one point in the latest poll. The five-point advantage tied the largest lead Trump had held over Biden in direct comparison polls dating back to 2017, according to Morning Consult.

Over the past 20 weeks, Biden tied with Trump five times, was ahead of the former president four times and ranked behind the former president 11 times.

Economic issues and immigration remain the foremost concerns for voters in the 2024 election. A separate Morning Consult poll targeting voters in swing states revealed a broader trust in Trump regarding both matters. The former president leads in all seven swing states surveyed, with a higher level of trust attributed for him for each issue in every state as well.

The newest poll showed more people had heard something negative about the economy than something positive with the net buzz ranking hitting -5 points, tied for the lowest in the 2024 election cycle since mid-December.

Critics have blamed Biden for not doing enough to help consumers who are struggling with higher prices and living expenses.

A major question for voters might revolve around the influence of the stock market on the candidates and the overall performance of the economy.

During Trump’s four years as president, the S&P 500 had average annual gains of 14.5%. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 Index, was up a total of around 67% during the four years under Trump, making it one of the best four-year returns for the S&P 500 in recent history.

Biden has been highlighting the S&P 500 hitting all-time highs. Last week, the index passed the 5,000 level for the first time in history.

The S&P 500 gained 37.4% during Biden’s first year in office, which was the best one-year market return under a president since Harry Truman in 1945. In 2022, the S&P 500 experienced a decline of over 19%, representing the largest annual drop since 2008.

As the 2024 presidential election draws near, the economy and stock market performance are expected to be central themes. While the economy's significance to voters in the 2024 election could influence their decisions, it remains to be seen whether past outcomes will definitively sway the balance toward Trump or Biden.

Read Next: Taylor Swift Could Help Joe Biden, 2024 Election Voter Participation New Survey Shows

Photos: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Shutterstock

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