The 2024 presidential election is over a year and a half away but continues to have three leading candidates locked in close battles in the polls and the betting odds. New polling data shows a major shift among the three candidates.
What Happened: For many months, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has been surging ahead in the Republican race against former President Donald Trump. Now, DeSantis is fading away as Trump faces a potential indictment and arrest.
DeSantis has surged in most polls to be ahead or even with Trump this week. The surge in popularity comes as Trump has officially announced his candidacy and DeSantis has not announced his official plans.
But, a new poll from Morning Consult shows DeSantis with a mere 26% support in a hypothetical Republican primary election. This marks the lowest level for DeSantis since December.
Trump tops the list with 54% of support in the poll from Morning Consult.
The two leading candidates rank significantly ahead of other current and potential contenders. Former Vice President Mike Pence ranked third with 7% of support. Nikki Haley, who is officially running in 2024, ranked fourth with 4%. Former Congresswoman Liz Cheney ranked fifth with 3% of the vote.
When asked about the second choice for president, DeSantis fared much better. DeSantis received 46% of the vote for the second choice from those who picked Trump first. Pence ranked second with 17% and Haley was third with 6%.
When asked about the second choice for president from those who picked DeSantis first, Trump got 43% of the vote. Pence and Haley ranked second and third at 16% and 15% respectively.
In hypothetical matchups against President Joe Biden, DeSantis received 41% of the vote versus 43% for Biden. Meanwhile, Trump also got 41% of the vote in a hypothetical matchup with Biden, who got 44% of the vote.
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Why It’s Important: Adding up the results, Trump got 97% of the vote as the first or second option. DeSantis got 72% of the option as the first or second choice.
The poll results differ from recent ones that have shown DeSantis with strong support and also from the betting odds, which find DeSantis ranking better at +300 compared to Trump at +350.
The battle between Trump and DeSantis could heat up with the indictment of the former president. DeSantis has stayed somewhat out of it and not taken the opportunity to push on Trump, other than one quote about “hush money to a porn star.”
The Florida governor was asked if he would help extradite the former president. DeSantis downplayed the case instead with comments about the politicization of the district attorney’s office in New York.
A report from Politico said DeSantis was not planning on getting involved in the political indictment.
“I have no interest in getting involved in some type of manufactured circus by some Soros DA. I’ve got real issues I’ve got to deal with here in the state of Florida,” DeSantis said.
The poll from Morning Consult comes as a poll from the Associated Press saw Biden’s approval rating hit his lowest level since July 2022. In the new poll, only 38% approve of Biden, down from 45% in February and 41% in January.
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Photo: Courtesy of Gage Skidmore and Matt Johnson on flickr
