As the year draws to a close, investors are looking for one last chance to make a winning play in 2024.
The S&P 500 has delivered a strong 27% surge year-to-date, but some may feel they’ve missed out on the gains—or even left money on the table with premature moves earlier in the year.
While the broader market often enjoys a Santa Claus rally, one stock in particular stands out for its incredible seasonality: Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX).
If historical patterns hold true, Netflix could be the perfect pick to buy in December and hold through end of January.
Here’s why.
Netflix's Stellar Seasonality: By The Numbers
As soon as Christmas songs start filling the air, Netflix has historically outperformed its peers in the S&P 500.
Data from Seasonax shows that the streaming giant has rallied an average of 14.1% from early December through the end of January, with a median return of 11%.
Over the last 20 years, Netflix has closed this two-month period in the green 80% of the time, or 16 out of 20 years.
Let's break that down further:
- Average return in positive years: +24.98%
- Average loss in negative years: -20.64%
- Best performance: +117.42% (Dec. 2012 – Jan. 2013)
- Worst performance: -30.71% (Dec. 2021 – Jan. 2022)
For perspective, Netflix has delivered double-digit returns 12 times during this period, making it a seasonal gem for traders looking to capitalize on recurring market patterns.
Here’s a snapshot of Netflix’s performance from early December through late January over the last 20 years:
| Start Date | Start Price ($) | End Date | End Price ($) | Profit (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec. 2, 2004 | 1.62 | Jan. 31, 2005 | 1.64 | +1.33% |
| Dec. 2, 2005 | 3.96 | Jan. 31, 2006 | 3.94 | -0.51% |
| Dec. 4, 2006 | 4.13 | Jan. 31, 2007 | 3.26 | -21.15% |
| Dec. 3, 2007 | 3.40 | Jan. 31, 2008 | 3.59 | +5.76% |
| Dec. 2, 2008 | 3.32 | Feb. 2, 2009 | 5.28 | +59.20% |
| Dec. 2, 2009 | 8.43 | Feb. 1, 2010 | 8.72 | +3.44% |
| Dec. 2, 2010 | 27.63 | Jan. 31, 2011 | 30.58 | +10.68% |
| Dec. 2, 2011 | 9.48 | Jan. 31, 2012 | 17.17 | +81.11% |
| Dec. 3, 2012 | 10.86 | Jan. 31, 2013 | 23.61 | +117.42% |
| Dec. 2, 2013 | 51.99 | Jan. 31, 2014 | 58.48 | +12.48% |
| Dec. 2, 2014 | 50.33 | Feb. 2, 2015 | 63.01 | +25.19% |
| Dec. 2, 2015 | 128.93 | Feb. 1, 2016 | 94.09 | -27.02% |
| Dec. 2, 2016 | 120.81 | Jan. 31, 2017 | 140.71 | +16.47% |
| Dec. 4, 2017 | 184.04 | Jan. 31, 2018 | 270.30 | +46.87% |
| Dec. 3, 2018 | 290.30 | Jan. 31, 2019 | 339.50 | +16.95% |
| Dec. 2, 2019 | 309.99 | Jan. 31, 2020 | 345.09 | +11.32% |
| Dec. 2, 2020 | 503.38 | Feb. 1, 2021 | 539.04 | +7.08% |
| Dec. 2, 2021 | 616.47 | Jan. 31, 2022 | 427.14 | -30.71% |
| Dec. 2, 2022 | 320.41 | Jan. 31, 2023 | 353.86 | +10.44% |
| Dec. 4, 2023 | 453.90 | Jan. 31, 2024 | 564.11 | +24.28% |
Election Year Edge: A Netflix Specialty
Netflix's late-year success is even more pronounced during U.S. presidential election cycles. In the last five election years, the stock has never posted a loss during the December-January period.
Instead, it delivered an average return of 34.33%, with a maximum profit of 117.4% during the 2012-2013 cycle.
Here's how Netflix performed during recent election years:
| Start Date | Start Price ($) | End Date | End Price ($) | Profit (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec. 2, 2004 | 1.62 | Jan. 31, 2005 | 1.64 | +1.33% |
| Dec. 2, 2008 | 3.32 | Feb. 2, 2009 | 5.28 | +59.20% |
| Dec. 3, 2012 | 10.86 | Jan. 31, 2013 | 23.61 | +117.42% |
| Dec. 2, 2016 | 120.81 | Jan. 31, 2017 | 140.71 | +16.47% |
| Dec. 2, 2020 | 503.38 | Feb. 1, 2021 | 539.04 | +7.08% |
Read also:
Why Netflix Is the Holiday Stock You Can't Ignore
Whether it's delivering triple-digit gains in its best years or remaining largely resilient in bearish conditions, the streaming giant has been a reliable performer for traders seeking late-year opportunities.
So, why does Netflix shine so brightly in December and January? Several factors might play a role:
- Holiday binge-watching: As people gather around TVs during the holidays, Netflix tends to dominate consumer attention.
- New-year optimism: Investors often position themselves for strong earnings results, driving demand for high-growth stocks like Netflix.
- Seasonal market rally: The broader "Santa Claus rally" typically provides tailwinds for stocks with positive sentiment.
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- Dollar Enters Its Most Bearish Month Of The Year: Could December 2024 Be Any Different?
Image: Shutterstock
