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Trump Vs. Biden: New Swing State Poll Reveals Winner, One Key 2024 Election Issue Could Influence Result (Updated)

Chris Katje
May 13, 2024

A new election poll of voters in key swing states shows who could have the best shot between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump to win the 2024 presidential election.


What Happened: Trump and Biden are the likely contenders facing off against each other in the 2024 presidential election, in what will be a rematch of the 2020 election won by Biden. Betting odds and most election polls point to a close race.

Deciding factors for the election could include young voters, voter turnout and the results of several key swing states.

A new Siena College/New York Times poll shows the results of how voters in six key swing states would vote if the election were held today.

The results are:

Arizona: 42% Biden, 49% Trump

Georgia: 39% Biden, 49% Trump

Michigan: 42% Biden, 49% Trump

Nevada: 38% Biden, 50% Trump

Pennsylvania: 44% Biden, 47% Trump

Wisconsin: 47% Biden, 45% Trump

The results see Trump leading in five of the six key states, with dominant leads in several of the states. Biden leads in the state of Wisconsin by a two-point margin.

The poll showed that when voters who said they were likely to vote in the 2024 election were included, Biden leads two states, gaining the state of Michigan.

Including independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as a possible selection also saw a similar results with Trump winning five of the six states.

Related Link: Trump Vs. Biden: 2024 Election Poll Shows Tie Broken — Which Candidate Gains Support From His Party, Independent Voters?

Why It's Important: The poll finds that many voters are still uneasy about the current state of the economy and it could be influencing their 2024 presidential election vote.

Poll findings show that many Americans feel uneasy having Biden in a second term and seeking to have a return to normalcy. Around 25% of voters list the economy and the cost of living as the top issue in the 2024 election.

Around 50% of those polled said that the economy is "poor," which is similar to the same poll conducted back in November. Even with inflation easing and the stock market trading higher, American voters see the economy as negative and a deciding factor in potentially voting against Biden.

Many voters see Trump doing a better job in leading the country when it comes to the economy according to the poll.

Around 70% of those polled said the country's political and economic systems need major changes.

Most swing state polls from other outlets have included seven states with the six mentioned above and the state of North Carolina.

A recent swing state poll of the seven states from Emerson College showed Trump leading in all the key voter markets. Trump's lead was one point in several territories, suggesting a close race.

These seven swing states together represent 93 electoral votes in the 2024 election. Six of the seven swing states were won by Biden in the 2020 election, with Trump winning North Carolina. Five of the seven swing states won by Biden in 2020 flipped from Trump's win in 2016, including Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin.

The six states in this poll were all won by Biden in the 2020 election.

Read Next: Trump’s Next Vice President? Doug Burgum Could Go From 1% Republican Voter Support To White House

Photo: Shutterstock

Editor’s Note: Pennsylvania was originally left out in the article’s poll results.

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