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Trump Vs. Biden: 2024 Election Poll Shows Tie Broken -- Which Candidate Gains Support From His Party, Independent Voters?

Chris Katje
May 08, 2024

Voters will head to the polls in six months to choose between frontrunners President Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election.

Election polls are showing a close race between the two candidates.

What Happened: Biden and Trump have been the frontrunners in the 2024 election for months and are the betting favorites in the November election.

Barring any further changes to the election, voters will be faced with a rematch of the 2020 presidential election, which was won by Biden.

The potential rematch has been viewed as a tight race for months, according to Morning Consult polls of nationally registered voters.

Here are the latest weekly results from the new Morning Consult poll, with the results from the April 30 poll in parentheses.

Joe Biden: 43% (42%)

Donald Trump: 44% (43%)

Someone Else: 9% (10%)

Don't Know: 5% (6%)

Of Democratic voters polled, 86% had Biden as their top pick. That's in line with the previous poll. Of Republican voters polled, 90% had Trump as their top pick, up two percentage points from the previous poll.

Independent voters, who could decide the election, selected their 2024 picks as follows, with the April 30 results in parentheses:

Joe Biden: 32% (34%)

Donald Trump: 37% (36%)

Someone Else: 20% (18%)

Don't Know: 11% (11%)

Related Link: Trump Uses Gag Order Fines As Fundraising Opportunity: ‘They Want To Silence Me! They Think They Can Bleed Me Dry!’

Why It's Important: Trump dominated the head-to-head poll against Biden in January and February. Over the past two months, Biden has narrowed the gap. Biden has posted a lead several times in the last two months and a number of ties have occurred.

The new poll shows Trump picking up support from Republican voters and Independent voters. Biden lost support from Independent voters in the latest poll. Trump's lead among Independent voters now stands at five points in the latest poll.

A total of 31% of Independent voters selected someone other than Trump or Biden or are undecided. This is up from 29% in last week's poll.

Trump also leads in six of the seven swing states in a recent Morning Consult poll (Biden carried Michigan). Trump gained support in five of the states and could be adding to his lead in the key battleground states.

The latest 2024 election poll comes as Trump is in the middle of a criminal trial for charges of falsifying business records related to alleged hush money payments made to adult actress Stormy Daniels. The results of the trial could have a big impact on future election polls and net favorability ratings.

Read Next: Trump Fined $1,000 For Gag Order Violation, Judge Threatens Jail Time Again: ‘Incarceration Is Truly A Last Resort’

Photos: Shutterstock

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