Top 3 Marijuana Stocks That Could Surge in 2024

The demand for cannabis is growing on a global scale. With legalization and decriminalization happening all around the world, many analysts and investors believe that marijuana will be a growing industry in the next decade. Get the latest report on 3 pot stocks set to take off in 2024!

By clicking the link above you will automatically opt-in to receive emails from ActivaTrade

The S&P 500 Probably Won't Crash By 50%, But If It Does, Gold Won't Protect You--Here's What Will.

David Pinsen
April 11, 2024

The S&P 500 Probably Isn't Going To Crash 50% Anytime Soon

Raising the possibility of a 50% market crash always grabs attention, as does promoting the benefit of holding gold in a portfolio, as the title of Wealthion's recent Zero Hedge post does ("Will the S&P 500 Crash By 50%? How Gold Could Protect Your Portfolio"). I was all set to argue against the idea of a 50% market crash this year, but then I watched Wealthion's interview with market technician Chris Vermeulen, and it turns out he's not calling for that. I've set the video below to start at Vermeulen's global market prediction toward the end of the interview. 

,

It turns out Vermeulen isn't calling for a 50% drop in the market this year, which makes sense. The Fed not raising rates in spite of embedded inflation and the federal government running unprecedentedly large fiscal deficits are both inflationary, and stocks are inflating along with fast food worker salaries, Big Mac meals, and much else in our economy. Vermeulen sees the possibility of a 10% to 20% correction by the end of this year. 

That seems possible in the following scenario. Let's say Trump wins the election in November, and then calls for major deficit reduction to rein in the inflation that got out of hand during Biden's tenure. That could send stocks down (and as far as Trump would be concerned, better to have stocks crash while he's still President-Elect than President). 

Where Vermeulen sees the possibility of a stock market correction extending down to a 50% drop is in 2025. I guess it's possible, but I don't claim to have any visibility into that. 

And Gold Isn't Going To Protect You Against A Market Crash

That's the second thing I was going to argue against here. I have nothing against gold--I currently hold shares in a gold miner I've written about on The Portfolio Armor Substack, Orla Mining Ltd. (NYSE:ORLA), at an average cost of about $2.90. ORLA was up 25.23% YTD, as of Wednesday's close, while the leading gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) was up 12.78%--they are both up this year because gold rises in an inflationary environment, but a market crash would be deflationary. In fact, the former Credit Suisse strategist Zoltan Pozsar argued a couple of years ago that the Fed would deliberately try to sink stocks to cool inflation. 

The NY Fed wunderkind-turned-Credit Suisse strategist on why the Fed's helicopters are dropping "financial napalm" this time. $SH $WEAT $TECS $BOIL https://t.co/hKLjrgLKse

— Portfolio Armor (@PortfolioArmor) May 17, 2022

Little did Pozsar know that the Fed would decide to let inflation and the markets rip instead of sabotaging Biden's reelection prospects, but here we are. In any case, as it turns out, Chris Vermeulen doesn't argue that gold would protect you in the event of a 50% market crash. Instead, he says that gold (and shares of gold miners) would crash along with stocks, and it would be a buying opportunity for investors. 

What Will Protect You In The Event Of A Market Crash

What will protect you in a market crash is put options on stocks. The standard objection to buying put options is that most of them expire worthless, and the cost of hedging with them can be a drag in an upmarket. That raises the question of what to do now, while the market is still going up. 

Buy What's Going Up And Hedge 

"Buy what's going up and hedge" is a bit of an oversimplification of our hedged portfolio method, but it's basically correct. We buy stuff that's going up, and looks like it might continue to go up, and we hedge in case it goes down instead. 

"How's That Working Out For You?"

Whenever someone presents a clever-sounding idea, it's natural to ask how that's working for them, as Brad Pitt's Tyler Durden does in the classic film Fight Club (1999). 

In our case, it's actually working out pretty well. Here's a real world example from six months ago. This was the hedged portfolio our site presented to an investor on October 5th of last year who was unwilling to risk a decline of more than 20% over the next six months. 

Screen captures via Portfolio Armor on 10/5/2023.

And here's how that portfolio did over the next six months, net of hedging and trading costs. This portfolio was up 50.65% over the next six months, versus up 22.62% for SPY. 

You can find an interactive version of that chart here

In that case, of course, the market went up, and our hedged portfolio did very well. What would have happened if the market had crashed by 50%? Since that portfolio was hedged against a >20% decline, it wouldn't have been down by more than 20%. 

Not a bad way to invest if you're worried about market crashes. 

 

If you want to stay in touch.

 

You can scan for optimal hedges for individual securities, find our current top ten names, and create hedged portfolios on our website. You can also follow Portfolio Armor on X here, or become a free subscriber to our trading Substack using the link below (we're using that for our occasional emails now).

This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga's reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.

Continue Reading...

Popular

New endangered listing for rare lizard could slow oil and gas drilling in New Mexico and West Texas

Federal wildlife officials declared a rare lizard in southeastern New Mexico and West Texas an endangered species Friday, citing future energy development, sand mining and climate change as the biggest threats to its survival in one of the world’s most lucrative oil and natural gas basins.

Germany Nears Decision To Ban Huawei 5G By 2026: Report

Germany is moving towards removing Chinese technology from its 5G core network by 2026, with support from three key ministries citing national security concerns.

Nvidia CEO Says It Will Spark "the Next Revolution" Beyond AI - Ad

Declares this radical biotechnology "is going to be flat out one of the biggest [tech revolutions] ever." And this $10 stock is at the center of all.

Top 3 Real Estate Stocks That Are Set To Fly

The RSI is a momentum indicator, which compares a stock’s strength on days when prices go up to its strength on days when prices go down.

Microsoft's Satya Nadella To Employees: 'Prioritize Security Above New Features'

CEO Satya Nadella drives Microsoft's security overhaul in response to recent cyber threats, prioritizing protection post-breaches.

One Coin to Rule Them All... - Ad

Hardly any investors are talking about this coin but I believe that's about to change with some potentially huge news! Get in on the ground floor while it's rock bottom with this new how-to guide, just $3.

Top 4 Health Care Stocks Which Could Rescue Your Portfolio This Month

The most oversold stocks in the health care sector presents an opportunity to buy into undervalued companies.

PASSIVE INCOME (by this evening) - Ad

Hey, I have an unique opportunity for those looking for additional ways to earn income right now. It can be done from home. You can do it in your spare time. And it only takes 6 clicks and as little as $50.

Buffett Says No Other Americans Would Have Had To Pay Even A Dime In Federal Taxes If This Had Happened

Warren Buffett suggests that federal taxes will likely increase given the country's precarious fiscal position, and he expressed Berkshire's willingness to cover the tax bill it faces.

Amazon's Betting Big on This Unknown AI Company - Ad

Amazon has just made a stunning $144 million investment in one small AI company. Why? Because this under-the-radar firm holds the key to unleashing the full potential of next-gen AI... Its technology is crucial for the most advanced AI chips, including Nvidia's latest breakthrough.

Katy Perry and Rihanna didn't attend the Met Gala. But AI-generated images still fooled fans

NEW YORK (AP) — No, and didn't attend the this year. But that didn't stop AI-generated images from tricking some fans into thinking the stars made appearances on the steps of fashion's biggest night.

Demand Soars For Novo Nordisk's Weight-Loss Drug Wegovy Despite Supply Constraints And Eli Lilly Competition

The Danish pharmaceutical company is now shipping more introductory doses of Wegovy to the U.S., as it grapples with supply constraints and competition from Eli Lilly.

Discover "U.S.'s New Money" Before Biden Wins - Ad

A new form of money has emerged in America, and it's making some folks wildly rich... (Musk and Bezos both use it). Find out how you can too in this free video.

Benzinga Bulls And Bears: Apple, Tesla, AMC, Bitcoin And Shiba Inu's Chart Forms Powerful Technical Patterns

Benzinga examined the prospects for many investors’ favorite stocks over the last week — here’s a look at some of our top stories. Stock markets ended the week on a high note following reassuring comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

READ THIS If You Missed Out on the AI Boom - Ad

Radical new biotechnology predicted to grow 320,000% in 3 years. Nvidia's CEO calls it "the next amazing revolution." And one small company poised to dominate this revolution trades for just $10.

Want to spend the night in a Paris museum or a house owned by Prince? Airbnb plans to list them

In a mad mix of game-show glitter and marketing flash, is offering customers a chance to spend a night in a Paris museum, stay in houses mocked up to look like movie settings, or sleep surrounded by eight Ferrari racing cars.

Hope Hicks Testifies On Trump's Ex-Lawyer Michael Cohen's 'Mr. Fix It' Moniker: 'Only Because He Broke It First'

The criminal trial against Donald Trump saw former Trump aide Hope Hicks take the stand Friday and discuss Michael Cohen and the "Access Hollywood" tape.

What's the Big Thing Musk, Bezos and Tim Cook All Have in Common? - Ad

One of America's most controversial CEOs says, "A new form of money in America is making some people (including Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and 17 of America's 25 wealthiest individuals), rich. It has nothing to do with gold, bitcoin, or anything like that, but it's 100% legal. The problem? Few Americans have a real understanding of how it works.

Three groups are suing New Jersey to block an offshore wind farm

LONG BEACH TOWNSHIP, N.J. (AP) — Three anti-wind power groups are suing New Jersey to overturn a key environmental approval for a wind energy farm planned off the coast of Long Beach Island.

Nervous about falling behind the GOP, Democrats are wrestling with how to use AI

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden’s campaign and Democratic candidates are in a fevered race with Republicans over who can best exploit the potential of artificial intelligence, a technology that could transform American elections — and perhaps threaten democracy itself.

Elon's New A.I. Device is About to Shock the World - Ad

Using this device you see... Elon Musk just tested a new type of A.I. that according to Wired Magazine will usher in... "The next step in human evolution."

The SEC charges Trump Media's newly hired auditing firm with 'massive fraud'

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — The Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday charged an auditing firm hired by Trump Media and Technology Group just 37 days ago with “massive fraud” — though not for any work it performed for former President Donald Trump’s media company.

Colombia breaks diplomatic ties with Israel but its military relies on key Israeli-built equipment

BOGOTA, Colombia (AP) — Colombia has become the latest Latin American country to announce that it over its military campaign in Gaza, but the repercussions for the South American nation could be broader than for other countries because of longstanding bilateral agreements over security matters.

America Has New Type of Money, Making Some Rich...Should You Get It? - Ad

One of America's most controversial CEOs says, "A new form of money in America is making some people (including Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and 17 of America's 25 wealthiest individuals), rich. It has nothing to do with gold, bitcoin, or anything like that, but it's 100% legal. The problem? Few Americans have a real understanding of how it works.

South Sudan removes newly imposed taxes that had triggered suspension of UN food airdrops

JUNA, South Sudan (AP) — Following an appeal from the United Nations, removed recently imposed taxes and fees that had triggered suspension of U.N. food airdrops. Thousands of people in the country depend on aid from the outside.

What to know about Trump strategist's embrace of AI to help conservatives

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. (AP) — Brad Parscale was the digital guru behind Donald Trump's surprise victory in the 2016 election and was promoted to manage the 2020 campaign. But he : His personal life unraveled in public and he later texted a friend that he felt “guilty” for helping Trump win after the riot at the U.S. Capitol.

$25 AI Stock Could Deliver Life-Changing Windfall - Ad

Discover a company at the forefront of the AI revolution, with up to $1 billion in government-backed contracts and 1,372 patent applications. Trading at just $25 a share...

Defi Coin Triggers All "Buy" Signals and Could Break Out Soon - Ad

Some are calling this the most promising DeFi project since Ethereum itself. Here's the #1 DeFi Coin Set to Soar. While Bitcoin grabs headlines, this lesser known DeFi coin is quietly gearing up for a monster rally. Experts say now is the time to buy before it reaches escape velocity.

Trump Vs. Biden: New Swing State Poll Reveals Winner, One Key 2024 Election Issue Could Influence Result (Updated)

A new 2024 election poll of swing state voters shows Donald Trump with a commanding lead. One key factor could be determining the race in these markets.

Gold Is SOARING -- Here's What You Need to Do - Ad

Everything is lining up perfectly for a historic gold bull run. One gold expert says he's found the best way to get in, for less than $5.

Your tax refund could be bigger this year. Here's what to do with it

NEW YORK (AP) — The average taxpayer is getting a $2,852 refund, $75 more than last year, based on the most recent IRS data. So what should you ?

AI & Crypto in One $11 Investment - Ad

Right now, you can harness the power of two bull markets... Artificial intelligence and cryptos...In one simple $11 investment.

Maui sues cell carriers over wildfire warning alerts that were never received during service outages

HONOLULU (AP) — Had emergency responders known about widespread cellphone outages during the height of last summer's deadly , they would have used other methods to warn about the disaster, county officials said in a lawsuit.

Trending Now

Information, charts or examples are for illustration and educational purposes only and not for individualized investment management This message contains commercial elements, such as advertising. We only send these offers to those who have opted in to our newsletter. Past performance is not indicative of future results. For these reasons we strongly suggest trading in a DEMO/Simulated account. The information provided by us is for educational and informational purposes only. We make no representations or warranties concerning the products, practices or procedures of any company or entity mentioned or recommended and have not determined if the statements and opinions of the advertiser are accurate, correct or truthful. If you use, act upon or make decisions in reliance on information contained or any external source linked within it, you do so at your own peril and agree to hold us, our officers, directors, shareholders, affiliates and agents without fault.

Copyright trendadvisor.net
Privacy Policy | Terms of Service