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Pre-Rolls, Vapes And Cannabis Flower: Insights Into The Canadian Marijuana Market

Nicolás Jose Rodriguez
November 30, 2023

Vape products in Canada's cannabis sector demonstrated significant year-over-year growth in Q3 2023, increasing by 21% and ranking third behind pre-rolls at (+25%) and concentrates at (+43%).

In his latest report, Pablo Zuanic, a senior analyst at  delves into the vape, pre-rolls and cannabis flower segments in Canada and sheds light on key market trends.

Cannabis Vapes: Market Share, Sales, And SKU Count In Canada

  • Despite this growth, vape's overall market share has remained relatively stable, accounting for 15% of cannabis sales, lower than in U.S. states like California and Colorado.
  • The report highlights significant changes in the Canadian vape market from Q1 2021 to Q3 2023.
  • Sales increased from C$114 million to C$207 million, a cumulative growth of 81%, with a quarterly compound annual growth rate of 6.1%.
  • The number of vape product SKUs also rose from 585 to 759.
  • Disposables accounted for 11% of sales, with closed-loop systems like STIIIZY having a significant market share in the U.S.
  • The leading players in the Canadian vape market in Q3 2023 were Motif Labs, holding a 21% market share, and Decibel Holdings (OTC:DBCCF) with 13%.
  • This represents a notable shift from Q1 2021 when Tilray (NASDAQ: TLRY) and Auxly (OTC:CBWTF) were the market leaders.

Canada’s Flower And Pre-Roll Market

The report also provides insights into the pre-roll and flower segments. Pre-rolls, accounting for 33% of total sales in Canada, are significantly more popular than in the U.S. states.

Decibel is the leading player in the pre-roll market, with a 16% share. The flower segment in Canada shows a steady growth rate, with sales increasing by 12.3% year-over-year in Q3 2023. However, Canada's per capita cannabis consumption still lags behind several U.S. states.

The leading companies in the flower segment include Tilray, VFF (VFF: NASDAQ), and Organigram (OGI: NASDAQ), with market dynamics shifting over the past year.

In the flower segment for 3Q23, the leaders were:

  • Tilray with a 14.9% market share
  • VFF with a 12.4% market share
  • Organigram with an 8.8% market share.

However, when looking at the proforma shares back in 1Q21 and 3Q22, the pattern is as follows:

  • In 1Q21, Tilray had a 27.3% proforma segment share (11.9% in 3Q22).
  • In 1Q21, Organigram had a 4.8% proforma flower share (11.5% in 3Q22).
  • In 1Q21, VFF had a 7.9% proforma flower share (11.3% in 3Q22).

“Over the past 12 months, both Tilray and VFF have gained market share, while Organigram has lost market share. This shift does not seem to be price-related, as OGI's average flower price increased from $4.37/gram in 3Q22 to $4.95/gram in 3Q23, and Tilray's prices also increased from $4.27/gram in 3Q22 to $5.35/gram in 3Q23, according to Hifyre data,” Zuanic wrote.

Emerging Champion In The Infused Pre-Rolls Segment

Infused pre-rolls are driving market growth in Canada, suggesting potential for further expansion.

Decibel has emerged as the market leader in pre-rolls, mainly in infused products, overtaking Tilray, which has seen a decline from a 39% share in 1Q21 to 12% now.

On Decibel’s emergence, Zuanic wrote: “According to Hifyre, Decibel's market share in the pre-roll segment was 2% in 1Q21 and increased to 7% in 3Q22, reaching 16% in the current period. In contrast, Tilray held a 39% share in 1Q21, which decreased to 19% in 3Q22, and further down to 12% now.”

“Notably, while Decibel's vape products are priced above the category average, their pre-roll prices are comparatively lower, at $4.02 per gram in 3Q23, against the category average of $5.65,” Zuanic continued. “For context, Tilray's pre-roll price is slightly higher, at $4.74 per gram.”

This shift could indicate changing consumer preferences and competitive dynamics in the Canadian market.

Cannabis Pricing In Canada

In Canada, the average price of vape products is significantly lower compared to U.S. states. This difference is partially attributed to the greater penetration of disposables and closed-loop systems in some U.S. states.

Meanwhile, the cost of cannabis pre-rolls is US$4.18 per gram (down from C$6.76 in 3Q22 and C$11.45 in 1Q21), whereas, in U.S. states like California, Colorado, and Michigan, prices are significantly higher (US$8.54, US$7.36, and US$6.04 respectively).

The average price per gram decreased from C$18.09 to C$8.97, although pack sizes have increased. 510 cartridges dominate the vape market, comprising over 87% of sales.

Caveat

Zuanic noted that Canadian LPs, despite diversification, have smaller domestic recreational sales when compared to US MSOs due to the 3-tier system and pricing deflation.

For instance, Tilray's annualized domestic recreational sales of US$133 million lag behind those of 15 US MSOs in 2022, despite being 50% higher than its closest LP peers.

Photo by Immo Wegmann on Unsplash

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