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Trump's Lead Over Biden Surges In Latest Poll: Political Analyst Shrugs Off The Number But Highlights A Scary Prospect

Shanthi Rexaline
November 23, 2023

Donald Trump has picked up a four-point lead over President Joe Biden in a national survey of registered voters, a new poll has found.

What Happened: In a hypothetical 2024 matchup, Trump was backed by 47% of the survey respondents compared to 43% for Biden, the results of the latest Emerson College Polling national survey showed. About 10% of the respondents were undecided.

Trump maintained the status quo position from the results of last month’s survey, while Biden’s support dropped from 45% to 43%.

The survey, conducted on Nov. 17-20, sought views from1,475 respondents.

"Last November, Biden led Trump by four points, whereas this November, he trails Trump by four. Several key groups have shifted in the past year: Biden led at this time last year among women by seven points, which has reduced to a point this year,” said Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling.

Biden’s job approval rating slid from 42% in October to 38% in the November survey, while the percentage of respondents who disapprove of his job performance remained unchanged at 50%.

If former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley were the Republican nominee, she and Biden would be tied with 38% of the votes, with 24% remaining undecided.

When third-party and independent candidates Robert Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein were added to the ballot, Trump's support decreases five points to 42% and Biden decreases seven points to 36%. Kennedy received the backing of 7% of the respondents, and West and Stein 1% each. The percentage of undecided voters increased to 13%.

See Also: Trump Vs. Biden: 2024 Election Poll Shows Former President Growing Lead Over Current President

Trump, Biden On Top In Primaries: According to the survey, Trump led his GOP co-contestants in the primary race, with his lead swelling from 59% in October to 64% in November. Haley was a distant second with 9% support, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 8%, Vivek Ramaswamy at 5% and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie at 3%.

About 10% were undecided, the poll found.

On the other side of the aisle, Biden had a commanding lead with 66% support. Marianne Williamson and Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) has the backing of just 5% and 2% of the respondents, respectively

Why It’s Important: Poll numbers from a year before the election are questionable, said American Enterprise Institute’s Norman Ornstein in an interview with MSNBC. Biden’s rating may be low, but this is a referendum right now and as election day approaches, it becomes more of a choice, he said.

The political analyst, who is an Atlantic contributor, said, “One part of this poll that gives me chills and great pause is what happens with the other candidates.” Biden needs an excited base, and the outcome of the war could potentially pose challenges in achieving that, he said.

“But otherwise we are talking about a 100,000 voters in a handful of states who are going to make the difference,” Ornstein said. “If you have voters who aren’t thrilled with Biden but hate Trump, give them another choice, and those swing voters can make a real difference. That’s what makes me more nervous about the election,” he said.

“The suburban Republican independent voters may decide that they can sell their consciousness by not voting for Trump, but voting for that kind of ticket,” Ornstein said, referring to third-party “no label” candidates. “I think it helps Trump, and that’s what scares me,” he added.

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