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Trump Leads Biden In National 2024 Election Poll: Here's The Margin, Who Independent Voters Are Favoring

Chris Katje
November 16, 2023

The 2024 presidential election is less than a year away and could have voters faced with a rematch of the 2020 presidential election, which saw voters select between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. The 2020 election was won by Biden.

A weekly election poll showed a potential matchup between the past two presidents and the results might be surprising after recent events.

What Happened: President Biden has been the favorite to win the Democratic Party nomination in the 2024 election for many months. Democratic candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announcing he would run as an Independent was a boost to Biden's odds of winning the party's nomination but could be worrisome for both Biden and Trump in the general election.

If Biden wins the Democratic nomination, he will likely face off against Trump in the general election. Trump has been dominant over Republican candidates and in a recent poll had a 50-point lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

The weekly Morning Consult poll asked registered voters who they would select in a hypothetical matchup of Trump vs. Biden.

In this week's poll, Biden received 42% of the vote, trailing Trump at 43% of the vote. The remaining voters selected Someone Else (11%) and Don't Know (5%).

By party, 83% of Democrats selected Biden and 86% of Republicans selected Trump for the hypothetical 2024 poll.

The important Independent voters, who could decide the election selected their 2024 pick as the following:

Biden: 31%

Trump: 38%

Someone Else: 21%

Don't Know: 10%

The poll also found that 88% of voters who also voted for Trump in the 2020 election are backing him again, compared to 82% of Biden 2020 voters who are also backing him again.

This marked a second straight week for Trump having a lead.

Related Link: 2024 Election Betting Odds

Why It's Important: Over the past eight weeks, Biden has been tied with Trump four times, ahead of the former president twice and ranked behind the former president twice.

This marked a big change from past months that saw Biden have a lead of one to two percentage points in most weeks since polling began in December.

Ten weeks ago, Biden had a three-point lead over Trump in one of his biggest advantages in recent months, before seeing momentum shift towards Trump.

The results of the poll come after Trump's civil fraud trial in the state of New York saw the former president on the witness stand and several of his children testifying.

Trump also skipped a third Republican primary debate, which saw five of his competitors on stage.

Morning Consult found Trump continued to outpace Biden in swing states ahead of the 2024 presidential election, an issue that is a major concern for Biden.

Here's a look at the most recent swing state polling from Morning Consult:

Arizona: 42% Biden, 46% Trump

Georgia: 41% Biden, 48% Trump

Michigan: 43% Biden, 43% Trump

Nevada: 43% Biden, 46% Trump

North Carolina: 39% Biden, 48% Trump

Pennsylvania: 44% Biden, 47% Trump

Wisconsin: 46% Biden, 47% Trump

A Morning Consult poll found Biden to have a favorable rating of 43% and an unfavorable rating of 52%. Trump had a 45% favorable rating and 51% unfavorable rating.

Biden had a 38% approval rating in the recent Morning Consult world leaders rankings.

The 2024 presidential election takes place on Nov. 5.

Read Next: Kamala Harris Says ‘Democracy On The Line' For 2024 Election, Confident In Biden For Presidency: ‘We Will Win'

Photos: Shutterstock

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