Robinhood Markets, Inc.’s (NASDAQ:HOOD) event-contracts business is accelerating, with September revenue pacing above a $200 million annualized rate as partner Kalshi’s volumes surge on NFL and NCAAF (college) football.
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Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley reiterated the Overweight rating on Robinhood, raising the price forecast from $120 to $140.
Moley said prediction markets (event contracts) could be a major growth driver for Robinhood, noting partner exchange Kalshi is pacing for a record $2.6 billion in September -- over 2x the prior monthly high -- boosted by new NFL and NCAAF markets.
The analyst estimates Robinhood users make up 25%–35% of Kalshi’s daily volume and that Robinhood’s event-contract revenue is running at an annualized rate above $200 million this month.
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Moley estimates Robinhood users drove about one-quarter of Kalshi’s event-contract volume year to date, rising to roughly one-third since NFL and NCAAF began.
Because Robinhood doesn’t consistently disclose volumes, the analyst bases the math on management remarks.
Robinhood cited one billion contracts traded in the second quarter, implying 27% of Kalshi’s volume that quarter.
During NCAAF Week 1 (Aug. 28–Sept. 1), Robinhood said its users traded “over 100 million” contracts, which the analyst equates to 34% of Kalshi’s NCAAF volume that weekend.
Moley estimates Robinhood’s prediction-market revenue to run at an annualized pace above $200 million in September.
According to the analyst, most activity is on Kalshi, which splits 2 cents per contract fee evenly with Robinhood.
Using Kalshi’s extrapolated volume for the third quarter of 2025 of 8,500 million contracts and assuming a 30% Robinhood share, the analyst models 2,550 million Robinhood contracts and $25.5 million in revenue, implying a quarterly run rate above $100 million and about $17.5 million for September.
The analyst raised the company’s FY25 EPS estimate to $1.87, compared with the prior view of $1.50.
HOOD Price Action: Robinhood shares are trading down 0.43% to $124.35 at publication on Tuesday.
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