U.S. stock futures were fluctuating around the flat line on Friday following Thursday’s positive moves. Futures of major benchmark indices were mixed.

Investors awaited the phone call between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, scheduled for later today, after China banned its major tech firms from purchasing Nvidia Corp.‘s (NASDAQ:NVDA) chips, and NVDA announced an investment in Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC).

A “framework for a TikTok deal” will also be discussed between the two leaders, confirmed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.12% and the two-year bond was at 3.57%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool‘s projections show markets pricing a 91.9% likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting the current interest rates in its October meeting.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, were mixed in premarket on Friday. The SPY was down 0.19% at $660.97, while the QQQ rose 0.084% to $595.82, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Cues From Last Session

Most sectors on the S&P 500 closed positively on Thursday, with information technology, industrials, and communication services stocks recording the biggest gains. However, consumer staples and consumer discretionary stocks bucked the overall market trend, closing the session lower.

The broad advance sent U.S. stocks higher, with the Nasdaq Composite gaining more than 200 points a day after the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points and signaled more easing ahead.

Tech stocks led the charge. Intel Corp. skyrocketed 23% after Nvidia Corp. pledged a $5 billion investment to co-develop PC and data center chips. CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWD) also rallied around 13% after unveiling long-term AI initiatives and revenue targets, forecasting annual recurring revenue growth above 20% by fiscal 2027.

On the economic front, U.S. initial jobless claims declined by 33,000 from the previous week to 231,000 in the second week of September, compared to market estimates of 240,000. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index rose to +23.2 in September, recording its highest level since January and a significant jump from -0.3 in August.

The Dow Jones index ended 124 points or 0.27% higher at 46,142.42, whereas the S&P 500 index rose 0.48% to 6,631.96. Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.94% to 22,470.72, and the small-cap gauge, Russell 2000, gained 2.51% to end at 2,467.70.

Insights From Analysts

In a recent market commentary, Scott Wren, Senior Global Market Strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, drew parallels between the current AI-driven market rally and the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, while highlighting crucial differences that shape his current outlook.

Wren noted that, like the internet boom, a small group of mega-cap stocks tied to a “world-changing” technology is propelling the S&P 500 to record highs. In March 2000, the Information Technology and Telecom sectors comprised nearly half of the index’s capitalization. Today, a similar concentration exists, with the Technology, Communications Services, and Consumer Discretionary sectors--all dominated by tech giants--making up over 55% of the S&P 500’s total value.

However, Wren points to a fundamental distinction. He states that the current mega-cap leaders driving the AI boom possess strong revenues, robust cash flows, and solid balance sheets. This contrasts sharply with the dot-com era, where many leading companies “were priced on potential future revenues and cash flows rather than current performance”.

While believing the AI trend will persist, Wren remains cautious due to a slowing economy and rising inflation, which could negatively impact some sectors. In response, Wells Fargo has maintained its favorable rating on large-cap stocks but has trimmed exposure to areas with high valuations or fundamental weaknesses.

Wren's strategy is to reallocate funds into less expensive, AI-related sectors like Information Technology and Industrials. The firm is most optimistic about the Financials sector, which is expected to benefit from falling interest rates.

The overall investment goal, Wren explains, is “to keep a favorable view of AI-related trends but to protect capital by trimming and reallocating selectively”.

Meanwhile, GQG Partners echoed a similar narrative in their latest report but diverged from the Wells Fargo view, noting that the tech sector no longer represents forward-looking quality due to decelerating revenue growth and increasing competition.

"Today's market, particularly in the tech sector, exhibits dotcom-era overvaluation, with lofty multiples, slower earnings growth, and a weaker macroeconomic backdrop, in our view," the firm stated.

Furthermore, the report pushes back on the perception that today's tech companies are cheaper than their dot-com counterparts, arguing that on a growth-adjusted basis, they are actually more expensive.

Data shows that the share of S&P 500 companies trading at more than 10 times sales has already surpassed the 2000 peak, signaling widespread overvaluation.

Due to these risks, GQG concludes it sees "better investment opportunities outside the tech sector." This view was also echoed by Meb Faber, the founder of Cambria Funds on X.

See Also: How to Trade Futures

Upcoming Economic Data

Here's what investors will be keeping an eye on Friday;

• San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will speak at 2:20 p.m. ET.

Stocks In Focus

• FedEx Corp. (NYSE:FDX) rose 4.88% in premarket on Friday after posting better-than-expected financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 on Thursday after the bell. It expects revenue to be up 4% to 6% on a year-over-year basis in fiscal 2026.
• Lennar Corp. (NYSE:LEN) tumbled 3.20% after posting weaker-than-expected third-quarter results after Thursday's closing bell. It reported adjusted earnings of $2 per share, which missed the consensus estimate of $2.10. Quarterly revenue came in at $8.81 billion, which missed the Street estimate of $8.99 billion.
• Scholastic Corp. (NASDAQ:SCHL) dropped 10.31% after reporting downbeat financial results for the first quarter.
• MoneyHero Ltd. (NASDAQ:MNY) jumped 10.36% ahead of its earnings report scheduled to be released before the opening bell. Analysts estimate earnings loss of 2 cents per share on revenue of $19.92 million.
• Globus Maritime Ltd. (NASDAQ:GLBS) advanced 7.97% as analysts expect it to report earnings loss of 18 cents per share on revenue of $8.80 million after the closing bell.
• Brera Holdings PLC (NASDAQ:BREA) fell 8.67% after Ark Invest made a bold move by purchasing a total of 6,500,001 shares across multiple ETFs.
• AGM Group Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:AGMH) surged 127.805 after revealing that AGM's subsidiary in Hong Kong finalized the sale of Nanjing Lucun Semiconductor Co. Ltd. to Hong Kong Giant Electronics Co., Limited for $57.45 million on May 7.
• Quantumscape Corp.(NYSE:QS) was 2.56% higher after several Form 4 filings showed notable insider trading on September 12. Director Jeffrey B. Straubel exercised 130,067 stock options at $2.377 each and sold 157,180 shares at an average price of $9.1997, all part of a trading plan set up in June under Rule 10b5-1.
• United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE:UPS) was up 1.13% as it filed an 8-K form saying it canceled the Estafeta acquisition because it couldn’t meet the conditions needed to close the deal.

Commodities, Gold And Global Equity Markets

Crude oil futures were trading lower in the early New York session by 0.85% to hover around $63.03 per barrel.

Gold Spot US Dollar rose 0.30% to hover around $3,655.43 per ounce. Its last record high stood at $3,707.7 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was 0.24% higher at the 97.5850 level.

Asian markets closed mixed on Friday, as China’s CSI 300, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, and Australia's ASX 200 indices rose. On the other hand, India’s S&P BSE Sensex, Japan's Nikkei 225, and South Korea's Kospi indices fell. European markets were higher in early trade.

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